Recent euro-area inflation data showing a rise to 3.0% in April 2026, fueled by Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has shifted ECB communications toward potential tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted upside risks to the outlook and second-round effects, supporting market-implied odds of 87% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 decision. Resilient labor conditions and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts reinforce trader consensus on anchoring expectations, while the 12% probability assigned to no change reflects ongoing data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息25个基点 87%
No change 12.3%
加息50个基点及以上 <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,216 交易量
$349,216 交易量
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
12%
加息25个基点
87%
加息50个基点及以上
1%
加息25个基点 87%
No change 12.3%
加息50个基点及以上 <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$349,216 交易量
$349,216 交易量
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 交易量
<1%
25 bps decrease
$63,809 交易量
<1%
No change
$73,771 交易量
12%
加息25个基点
$86,140 交易量
87%
加息50个基点及以上
$64,834 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent euro-area inflation data showing a rise to 3.0% in April 2026, fueled by Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has shifted ECB communications toward potential tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted upside risks to the outlook and second-round effects, supporting market-implied odds of 87% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 decision. Resilient labor conditions and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts reinforce trader consensus on anchoring expectations, while the 12% probability assigned to no change reflects ongoing data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$349,216结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent euro-area inflation data showing a rise to 3.0% in April 2026, fueled by Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has shifted ECB communications toward potential tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted upside risks to the outlook and second-round effects, supporting market-implied odds of 87% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 decision. Resilient labor conditions and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts reinforce trader consensus on anchoring expectations, while the 12% probability assigned to no change reflects ongoing data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
交易量
$349,216结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent euro-area inflation data showing a rise to 3.0% in April 2026, fueled by Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, has shifted ECB communications toward potential tightening. With the deposit facility rate held at 2.00% after the April 30 meeting, officials including Bundesbank President Nagel have highlighted upside risks to the outlook and second-round effects, supporting market-implied odds of 87% for a 25 basis point hike at the June 11 decision. Resilient labor conditions and upward revisions to 2026 HICP forecasts reinforce trader consensus on anchoring expectations, while the 12% probability assigned to no change reflects ongoing data dependence ahead of fresh inflation and commodity readings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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