Connecticut's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index exceeding D+12 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 63 percent share in 2024. The May 2026 Democratic convention produced an upset when former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin secured the party endorsement over 14-term Representative John Larson, setting up an August 11 primary also featuring state Representative Jillian Gilchrest, yet the general election outcome stays overwhelmingly likely to favor whichever Democrat advances. A Republican nominee, Amy Chai, faces structural barriers in a district centered on Hartford and surrounding central Connecticut communities that have delivered reliable Democratic majorities. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this entrenched electoral math and the absence of any recent developments capable of shifting the balance before November 2026. Late primary consolidation around a single strong Democratic standard-bearer or unexpected national headwinds could modestly narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic pathways for a Republican victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$2,294 交易量
94%
共和党
$1,224 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Connecticut's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index exceeding D+12 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 63 percent share in 2024. The May 2026 Democratic convention produced an upset when former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin secured the party endorsement over 14-term Representative John Larson, setting up an August 11 primary also featuring state Representative Jillian Gilchrest, yet the general election outcome stays overwhelmingly likely to favor whichever Democrat advances. A Republican nominee, Amy Chai, faces structural barriers in a district centered on Hartford and surrounding central Connecticut communities that have delivered reliable Democratic majorities. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this entrenched electoral math and the absence of any recent developments capable of shifting the balance before November 2026. Late primary consolidation around a single strong Democratic standard-bearer or unexpected national headwinds could modestly narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic pathways for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$3,518结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Connecticut's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index exceeding D+12 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 63 percent share in 2024. The May 2026 Democratic convention produced an upset when former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin secured the party endorsement over 14-term Representative John Larson, setting up an August 11 primary also featuring state Representative Jillian Gilchrest, yet the general election outcome stays overwhelmingly likely to favor whichever Democrat advances. A Republican nominee, Amy Chai, faces structural barriers in a district centered on Hartford and surrounding central Connecticut communities that have delivered reliable Democratic majorities. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this entrenched electoral math and the absence of any recent developments capable of shifting the balance before November 2026. Late primary consolidation around a single strong Democratic standard-bearer or unexpected national headwinds could modestly narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic pathways for a Republican victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,518结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Connecticut's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat with a partisan voting index exceeding D+12 and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including the incumbent's 63 percent share in 2024. The May 2026 Democratic convention produced an upset when former Hartford mayor Luke Bronin secured the party endorsement over 14-term Representative John Larson, setting up an August 11 primary also featuring state Representative Jillian Gilchrest, yet the general election outcome stays overwhelmingly likely to favor whichever Democrat advances. A Republican nominee, Amy Chai, faces structural barriers in a district centered on Hartford and surrounding central Connecticut communities that have delivered reliable Democratic majorities. Trader pricing at 93.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects this entrenched electoral math and the absence of any recent developments capable of shifting the balance before November 2026. Late primary consolidation around a single strong Democratic standard-bearer or unexpected national headwinds could modestly narrow the gap, though historical patterns indicate limited realistic pathways for a Republican victory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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