Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold to one with a slight Democratic lean, creating a strong pickup opportunity for Democrats in the open seat race. Incumbent Darrell Issa retired, prompting San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to enter as the leading Republican, backed by President Trump, while a crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates such as Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar has drawn some internal competition ahead of the June 2 primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered voter composition and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Traders' 85.5% consensus on the Democratic Party aligns with this structural advantage and recent polling trends showing Democratic strength in general election matchups.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$10,087 交易量
$10,087 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
86%
共和党
14%
$10,087 交易量
$10,087 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$5,768 交易量
86%
共和党
$4,319 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold to one with a slight Democratic lean, creating a strong pickup opportunity for Democrats in the open seat race. Incumbent Darrell Issa retired, prompting San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to enter as the leading Republican, backed by President Trump, while a crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates such as Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar has drawn some internal competition ahead of the June 2 primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered voter composition and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Traders' 85.5% consensus on the Democratic Party aligns with this structural advantage and recent polling trends showing Democratic strength in general election matchups.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$10,087结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold to one with a slight Democratic lean, creating a strong pickup opportunity for Democrats in the open seat race. Incumbent Darrell Issa retired, prompting San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to enter as the leading Republican, backed by President Trump, while a crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates such as Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar has drawn some internal competition ahead of the June 2 primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered voter composition and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Traders' 85.5% consensus on the Democratic Party aligns with this structural advantage and recent polling trends showing Democratic strength in general election matchups.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$10,087结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold to one with a slight Democratic lean, creating a strong pickup opportunity for Democrats in the open seat race. Incumbent Darrell Issa retired, prompting San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to enter as the leading Republican, backed by President Trump, while a crowded Democratic primary featuring candidates such as Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar has drawn some internal competition ahead of the June 2 primary. Race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the contest as Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered voter composition and historical patterns in similar redrawn districts. Traders' 85.5% consensus on the Democratic Party aligns with this structural advantage and recent polling trends showing Democratic strength in general election matchups.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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