Recent Copernicus and supporting agency analyses position August 2026 global surface temperatures at levels consistent with the dominant 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin relative to pre-industrial baselines, reflecting the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and an intensifying El Niño that elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and propagated heat globally. Official measurements show record or near-record warmth for the month, with extra-polar ocean temperatures also at historic highs, aligning trader consensus around this narrow range given the stability of final dataset revisions. Scenarios that could shift odds include late adjustments in NOAA or NASA GISS processing, divergences between surface and tropospheric metrics, or unexpected model corrections to the El Niño contribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
2026年8月温度升高（ ºC ） （更高的罢工）
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 交易量
$20,755 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 交易量
$20,755 交易量
2026-08-31
<1.30ºC
$657 交易量
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 交易量
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 交易量
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 交易量
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,267 交易量
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus and supporting agency analyses position August 2026 global surface temperatures at levels consistent with the dominant 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin relative to pre-industrial baselines, reflecting the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and an intensifying El Niño that elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and propagated heat globally. Official measurements show record or near-record warmth for the month, with extra-polar ocean temperatures also at historic highs, aligning trader consensus around this narrow range given the stability of final dataset revisions. Scenarios that could shift odds include late adjustments in NOAA or NASA GISS processing, divergences between surface and tropospheric metrics, or unexpected model corrections to the El Niño contribution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
交易量
$20,755结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent Copernicus and supporting agency analyses position August 2026 global surface temperatures at levels consistent with the dominant 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin relative to pre-industrial baselines, reflecting the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and an intensifying El Niño that elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and propagated heat globally. Official measurements show record or near-record warmth for the month, with extra-polar ocean temperatures also at historic highs, aligning trader consensus around this narrow range given the stability of final dataset revisions. Scenarios that could shift odds include late adjustments in NOAA or NASA GISS processing, divergences between surface and tropospheric metrics, or unexpected model corrections to the El Niño contribution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$20,755结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRecent Copernicus and supporting agency analyses position August 2026 global surface temperatures at levels consistent with the dominant 1.38–1.41°C anomaly bin relative to pre-industrial baselines, reflecting the combined effects of long-term anthropogenic warming and an intensifying El Niño that elevated tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and propagated heat globally. Official measurements show record or near-record warmth for the month, with extra-polar ocean temperatures also at historic highs, aligning trader consensus around this narrow range given the stability of final dataset revisions. Scenarios that could shift odds include late adjustments in NOAA or NASA GISS processing, divergences between surface and tropospheric metrics, or unexpected model corrections to the El Niño contribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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