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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?

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538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for the date of August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans and Democrats at an equal percentage of support, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on August 16, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of August 15 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at August 17, 12 PM ET. If data for August 15, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

If the FiveThirtyEight graph titled "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" shows Republicans at a greater percentage of support than Democrats for the date of August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Republicans". If the same graph shows Democrats at a greater percentage of support than Republicans for August 15, 2022 at the time of the check, this market will resolve to "Democrats". If the same graph shows Republicans and Democrats at an equal percentage of support, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market is the FiveThirtyEight "Do voters want Republicans or Democrats in Congress?" graph, with the "POLL TYPE" option set to "Generic ballot" and the "CYCLE" option set to "2022". The graph is presently located at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates this graph's figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This resolution source for this market will be checked on August 16, 2022 at 12 PM ET. This market can only resolve after this check has been performed. If data for the date of August 15 is not available on this market's check time, the resolution source will be checked every six hours with the final check at August 17, 12 PM ET. If data for August 15, 2022 remains unavailable at the final check time, this market will resolve based on the value of the data point for the nearest prior available day. Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?"，概率为 0%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 0¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 0%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Aug 2, 2022上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?"的当前领先者是"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?"，仅有 0%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"538: Will voters prefer Republicans or Democrats on August 15?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。