Michigan holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 NCAA Tournament at 20.5% implied probability, propelled by its consensus No. 1-ranked 2025 recruiting class under new coach Dusty May, featuring elite prospects like Karter Knox. Arizona (19.7%) and Duke (17.0%) keep pace through transfer portal reinforcements and perennial pipelines of five-star talent, while Florida and Houston benefit from returning starters and defensive identities. This clustered field underscores recruiting parity among blue-bloods and rising powers, amplified by NBA draft attrition and unproven freshman impacts—traders price in high variance from injuries, conference gauntlets, and midseason momentum swings that define March Madness chaos.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于密歇根 21%
亚利桑那 19.7%
杜克 17%
佛罗里达 9.8%
$21,835,815 交易量
$21,835,815 交易量
密歇根
21%
亚利桑那
20%
杜克
17%
佛罗里达
10%
休斯顿
9%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
普渡大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
密歇根州立大学
3%
圣约翰大学
2%
阿肯色
2%
堪萨斯
1%
德克萨斯
1%
High Point
1%
UCLA
1%
田纳西
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
范德堡
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
TCU
<1%
冈萨加
<1%
VCU
<1%
德克萨斯农工大学
<1%
密歇根 21%
亚利桑那 19.7%
杜克 17%
佛罗里达 9.8%
$21,835,815 交易量
$21,835,815 交易量
密歇根
21%
亚利桑那
20%
杜克
17%
佛罗里达
10%
休斯顿
9%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
普渡大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
密歇根州立大学
3%
圣约翰大学
2%
阿肯色
2%
堪萨斯
1%
德克萨斯
1%
High Point
1%
UCLA
1%
田纳西
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
范德堡
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
TCU
<1%
冈萨加
<1%
VCU
<1%
德克萨斯农工大学
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
市场开放时间: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan holds a slim edge in trader consensus for the 2026 NCAA Tournament at 20.5% implied probability, propelled by its consensus No. 1-ranked 2025 recruiting class under new coach Dusty May, featuring elite prospects like Karter Knox. Arizona (19.7%) and Duke (17.0%) keep pace through transfer portal reinforcements and perennial pipelines of five-star talent, while Florida and Houston benefit from returning starters and defensive identities. This clustered field underscores recruiting parity among blue-bloods and rising powers, amplified by NBA draft attrition and unproven freshman impacts—traders price in high variance from injuries, conference gauntlets, and midseason momentum swings that define March Madness chaos.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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