Michigan and Arizona lead the 2026 NCAA Tournament futures at 19.5% and 19.4% implied probabilities, with Duke close behind at 16.5%, reflecting trader consensus on their elite 2025 recruiting hauls amid a hyper-competitive transfer portal. Michigan's surge stems from new coach Dusty May's Final Four pedigree and No. 2-ranked class featuring five-star guards, positioning them for Big Ten contention. Arizona boasts the top recruiting class under Tommy Lloyd, bolstered by international pipeline talent. Duke benefits from No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg and Jon Scheyer's development system, though all frontrunners face roster turnover risks, schedule gauntlets, and unproven freshman chemistry keeping the market tight through the 2025-26 season.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于亚利桑那 19.4%
密歇根 19%
杜克 17%
佛罗里达 9.6%
$22,004,826 交易量
$22,004,826 交易量
亚利桑那
19%
密歇根
19%
杜克
17%
佛罗里达
10%
休斯顿
9%
普渡大学
5%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
阿肯色
3%
密歇根州立大学
2%
圣约翰大学
2%
田纳西
1%
堪萨斯
1%
UCLA
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
德克萨斯
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
亚利桑那 19.4%
密歇根 19%
杜克 17%
佛罗里达 9.6%
$22,004,826 交易量
$22,004,826 交易量
亚利桑那
19%
密歇根
19%
杜克
17%
佛罗里达
10%
休斯顿
9%
普渡大学
5%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
阿肯色
3%
密歇根州立大学
2%
圣约翰大学
2%
田纳西
1%
堪萨斯
1%
UCLA
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
德克萨斯
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
市场开放时间: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan and Arizona lead the 2026 NCAA Tournament futures at 19.5% and 19.4% implied probabilities, with Duke close behind at 16.5%, reflecting trader consensus on their elite 2025 recruiting hauls amid a hyper-competitive transfer portal. Michigan's surge stems from new coach Dusty May's Final Four pedigree and No. 2-ranked class featuring five-star guards, positioning them for Big Ten contention. Arizona boasts the top recruiting class under Tommy Lloyd, bolstered by international pipeline talent. Duke benefits from No. 1 recruit Cooper Flagg and Jon Scheyer's development system, though all frontrunners face roster turnover risks, schedule gauntlets, and unproven freshman chemistry keeping the market tight through the 2025-26 season.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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