Trader consensus for the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner shows razor-thin separation among frontrunners Arizona (19.6%), Michigan (19.5%), and Duke (16.5%), driven by parity in elite 2025 recruiting classes and transfer portal hauls amid conference realignments. Arizona holds a slight edge with its No. 1-ranked freshman class led by five-star talents and a battle-tested core from recent Elite Eight appearances, while Michigan's hiring of Dusty May—fresh off a Final Four with FAU—pairs with key returners like Trey Gaddis for instant contention. Duke counters via Jon Scheyer's pipeline of McDonald's All-Americans, but loaded Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC schedules introduce injury risks and matchup volatility, keeping implied probabilities bunched and responsive to early-season form.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于亚利桑那 19.6%
密歇根 20%
杜克 17%
佛罗里达 10.0%
$21,876,222 交易量
$21,876,222 交易量
亚利桑那
20%
密歇根
20%
杜克
17%
佛罗里达
10%
休斯顿
8%
普渡大学
5%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
密歇根州立大学
2%
阿肯色
2%
圣约翰大学
1%
田纳西
1%
堪萨斯
1%
UCLA
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
德克萨斯
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
亚利桑那 19.6%
密歇根 20%
杜克 17%
佛罗里达 10.0%
$21,876,222 交易量
$21,876,222 交易量
亚利桑那
20%
密歇根
20%
杜克
17%
佛罗里达
10%
休斯顿
8%
普渡大学
5%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
密歇根州立大学
2%
阿肯色
2%
圣约翰大学
1%
田纳西
1%
堪萨斯
1%
UCLA
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
德克萨斯
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
市场开放时间: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus for the 2026 NCAA Tournament winner shows razor-thin separation among frontrunners Arizona (19.6%), Michigan (19.5%), and Duke (16.5%), driven by parity in elite 2025 recruiting classes and transfer portal hauls amid conference realignments. Arizona holds a slight edge with its No. 1-ranked freshman class led by five-star talents and a battle-tested core from recent Elite Eight appearances, while Michigan's hiring of Dusty May—fresh off a Final Four with FAU—pairs with key returners like Trey Gaddis for instant contention. Duke counters via Jon Scheyer's pipeline of McDonald's All-Americans, but loaded Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC schedules introduce injury risks and matchup volatility, keeping implied probabilities bunched and responsive to early-season form.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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