Michigan leads trader consensus at 20.5% implied probability for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title, fueled by its No. 1-ranked 2025 recruiting class under Dusty May, including five-star talents like Trey McNutt and Durral Brooks alongside key returners. Arizona (19.8%) and Duke (16.5%) trail closely, bolstered by their own top-five hauls—Koa Peat and Jalil Bethea, respectively—plus aggressive transfer portal moves retaining elite production. Florida's surge to 9.2% reflects Todd Golden's portal dominance and four-star signees, while Houston's defensive pedigree endures despite graduations. This parity stems from widespread recruiting parity, unresolved transfer impacts, and early-season variables like non-conference schedules, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing high-variance futures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于密歇根 21%
亚利桑那 19.7%
杜克 18%
佛罗里达 9.0%
$21,331,650 交易量
$21,331,650 交易量
密歇根
21%
亚利桑那
20%
杜克
18%
佛罗里达
9%
休斯顿
7%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
普渡大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
密歇根州立大学
3%
阿肯色
2%
圣约翰大学
2%
冈萨加
2%
UCLA
1%
堪萨斯
1%
范德堡
1%
田纳西
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
德克萨斯
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
德克萨斯农工大学
<1%
VCU
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
路易斯维尔
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
密歇根 21%
亚利桑那 19.7%
杜克 18%
佛罗里达 9.0%
$21,331,650 交易量
$21,331,650 交易量
密歇根
21%
亚利桑那
20%
杜克
18%
佛罗里达
9%
休斯顿
7%
伊利诺伊
4%
爱荷华州立大学
4%
普渡大学
4%
康涅狄格
3%
密歇根州立大学
3%
阿肯色
2%
圣约翰大学
2%
冈萨加
2%
UCLA
1%
堪萨斯
1%
范德堡
1%
田纳西
1%
弗吉尼亚
1%
内布拉斯加
1%
阿拉巴马
<1%
迈阿密(佛罗里达)
<1%
德克萨斯理工大学
<1%
德克萨斯
<1%
肯塔基
<1%
爱荷华
<1%
德克萨斯农工大学
<1%
VCU
<1%
TCU
<1%
High Point
<1%
路易斯维尔
<1%
犹他州立大学
<1%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
市场开放时间: Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan leads trader consensus at 20.5% implied probability for the 2026 NCAA Tournament title, fueled by its No. 1-ranked 2025 recruiting class under Dusty May, including five-star talents like Trey McNutt and Durral Brooks alongside key returners. Arizona (19.8%) and Duke (16.5%) trail closely, bolstered by their own top-five hauls—Koa Peat and Jalil Bethea, respectively—plus aggressive transfer portal moves retaining elite production. Florida's surge to 9.2% reflects Todd Golden's portal dominance and four-star signees, while Houston's defensive pedigree endures despite graduations. This parity stems from widespread recruiting parity, unresolved transfer impacts, and early-season variables like non-conference schedules, underscoring the wisdom of crowds in pricing high-variance futures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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