Spain holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their dramatic penalty shootout victory over the Netherlands in the UEFA playoff second leg on March 23, confirming qualification and showcasing the golden generation's resilience with stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) trail closely after securing spots via strong group performances and France's playoff win over Croatia, reflecting deep squads featuring Bellingham, Kane, Mbappé, and Dembélé amid favorable draw positions post-December group stage reveal. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field, with no dominant favorite due to balanced European powerhouses, South American qualifiers like Argentina's top CONMEBOL finish, and minimal injury disruptions in the final pre-tournament window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 16.3%
英格兰 12.6%
法国 12.3%
阿根廷 9.3%
$449,477,360 交易量
$449,477,360 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 16.3%
英格兰 12.6%
法国 12.3%
阿根廷 9.3%
$449,477,360 交易量
$449,477,360 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
瑞士
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim lead in trader consensus at 16.3% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, driven by their dramatic penalty shootout victory over the Netherlands in the UEFA playoff second leg on March 23, confirming qualification and showcasing the golden generation's resilience with stars like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. England (12.6%) and France (12.3%) trail closely after securing spots via strong group performances and France's playoff win over Croatia, reflecting deep squads featuring Bellingham, Kane, Mbappé, and Dembélé amid favorable draw positions post-December group stage reveal. The bunched top probabilities underscore a hyper-competitive 48-team field, with no dominant favorite due to balanced European powerhouses, South American qualifiers like Argentina's top CONMEBOL finish, and minimal injury disruptions in the final pre-tournament window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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