Spain leads trader consensus at 15.9% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title following their unbeaten UEFA qualification campaign and lingering momentum from the Euro 2024 triumph, bolstered by a youthful squad featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France trails closely at 13.3% after surging to FIFA's No. 1 ranking amid strong recent form, while England (11.8%) and defending champions Argentina (9.2%) reflect deep talent pools despite Messi's advancing age. Brazil sits at 8.6% post a middling CONMEBOL finish, with Portugal and Germany viable amid balanced group stage draws post-final draw. The bunched top reflects the intact elite field after March 31 UEFA playoff resolutions—Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czechia, Türkiye, and Sweden qualifying without derailing favorites—and the expanded 48-team format amplifying European and South American depth for a fiercely contested knockout path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.9%
法国 13.3%
英格兰 11.8%
阿根廷 9.2%
$478,309,105 交易量
$478,309,105 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
库拉索
<1%
西班牙 15.9%
法国 13.3%
英格兰 11.8%
阿根廷 9.2%
$478,309,105 交易量
$478,309,105 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
库拉索
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 15.9% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title following their unbeaten UEFA qualification campaign and lingering momentum from the Euro 2024 triumph, bolstered by a youthful squad featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France trails closely at 13.3% after surging to FIFA's No. 1 ranking amid strong recent form, while England (11.8%) and defending champions Argentina (9.2%) reflect deep talent pools despite Messi's advancing age. Brazil sits at 8.6% post a middling CONMEBOL finish, with Portugal and Germany viable amid balanced group stage draws post-final draw. The bunched top reflects the intact elite field after March 31 UEFA playoff resolutions—Bosnia & Herzegovina, Czechia, Türkiye, and Sweden qualifying without derailing favorites—and the expanded 48-team format amplifying European and South American depth for a fiercely contested knockout path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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