Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability following the March 31 completion of UEFA playoffs that finalized the 48-team field, with their Euro 2024 triumph and UEFA Group E qualification via a tense final-day 2-2 draw against Türkiye underscoring squad depth from Yamal to Morata. France (13.6%) trails narrowly after dominating Group F with a 4-0 rout of Ukraine and a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil sparked by Mbappé, while England (11.5%) secured early passage with a 5-0 demolition of Latvia, leveraging Premier League stars like Bellingham and Kane. The tight top cluster reflects parity across 16 UEFA qualifiers, CONMEBOL's six automatic berths for Argentina and Brazil among others, and the expanded format's knockout pathways amid host advantages and debutants like Curaçao.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
法国 13.6%
英格兰 11.5%
阿根廷 9.3%
$490,192,440 交易量
$490,192,440 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
14%
英格兰
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
法国 13.6%
英格兰 11.5%
阿根廷 9.3%
$490,192,440 交易量
$490,192,440 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
14%
英格兰
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
摩洛哥
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability following the March 31 completion of UEFA playoffs that finalized the 48-team field, with their Euro 2024 triumph and UEFA Group E qualification via a tense final-day 2-2 draw against Türkiye underscoring squad depth from Yamal to Morata. France (13.6%) trails narrowly after dominating Group F with a 4-0 rout of Ukraine and a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil sparked by Mbappé, while England (11.5%) secured early passage with a 5-0 demolition of Latvia, leveraging Premier League stars like Bellingham and Kane. The tight top cluster reflects parity across 16 UEFA qualifiers, CONMEBOL's six automatic berths for Argentina and Brazil among others, and the expanded format's knockout pathways amid host advantages and debutants like Curaçao.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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