With the full 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup now locked in after March intercontinental playoffs, Spain commands trader consensus at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 triumph, top FIFA ranking, and dynamic form from qualifiers featuring young stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France sits tight at 14% after a resilient 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil last week despite a red card, underscoring Mbappé's knockout pedigree and defensive solidity. England edges 11% on squad depth but recent Nations League stumbles, while defending champions Argentina (9%) and rebuilding Brazil (9%) remain viable amid Messi's experience and South American firepower. This clustered frontrunner pack highlights the expanded format's volatility, neutral North American venues diluting home edges, and deep European talent pool fostering tight knockout paths.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.7%
法国 13.6%
英格兰 11.4%
阿根廷 9.3%
$496,379,607 交易量
$496,379,607 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
14%
英格兰
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
日本
2%
比利时
2%
摩洛哥
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
西班牙 15.7%
法国 13.6%
英格兰 11.4%
阿根廷 9.3%
$496,379,607 交易量
$496,379,607 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
14%
英格兰
11%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
日本
2%
比利时
2%
摩洛哥
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
土耳其
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
波黑
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
捷克
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
伊拉克
<1%
南非
<1%
刚果（金）
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With the full 48-team field for the 2026 FIFA World Cup now locked in after March intercontinental playoffs, Spain commands trader consensus at 16% implied probability, propelled by their Euro 2024 triumph, top FIFA ranking, and dynamic form from qualifiers featuring young stars like Lamine Yamal and Pedri. France sits tight at 14% after a resilient 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil last week despite a red card, underscoring Mbappé's knockout pedigree and defensive solidity. England edges 11% on squad depth but recent Nations League stumbles, while defending champions Argentina (9%) and rebuilding Brazil (9%) remain viable amid Messi's experience and South American firepower. This clustered frontrunner pack highlights the expanded format's volatility, neutral North American venues diluting home edges, and deep European talent pool fostering tight knockout paths.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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