世界杯冠軍

Name: 世界杯冠軍
Start: 2025-07-02T22:28:24.564Z
End: 2026-07-20T00:00:00.000Z

世界杯冠軍 — 討論

lebleu · 2025-07-02T22:28:24.564Z

關於世界杯冠軍的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

西班牙 16.2%

法國 16.2%

英格蘭 11.2%

葡萄牙 10.1%

$1,648,984,757 交易量

2026-07-20

西班牙

$30,792,544 交易量

16%

法國

$37,910,565 交易量

16%

英格蘭

$26,525,767 交易量

11%

葡萄牙

$31,738,040 交易量

10%

阿根廷

$27,690,213 交易量

巴西

$27,844,415 交易量

德國

$28,803,981 交易量

荷蘭

$31,255,352 交易量

挪威

$31,864,727 交易量

日本

$33,457,805 交易量

比利時

$29,307,824 交易量

哥倫比亞

$28,474,658 交易量

摩洛哥

$35,853,270 交易量

土耳其

$30,222,797 交易量

墨西哥

$35,797,813 交易量

瑞士

$30,539,935 交易量

美國

$46,720,954 交易量

烏拉圭

$29,628,381 交易量

克羅埃西亞

$38,900,061 交易量

厄瓜多

$36,178,013 交易量

塞內加爾

$31,130,660 交易量

象牙海岸

$47,310,892 交易量

<1%

奧地利

$34,344,587 交易量

<1%

瑞典

$21,424,682 交易量

<1%

南韓

$39,721,441 交易量

<1%

加拿大

$34,816,478 交易量

<1%

巴拉圭

$30,724,239 交易量

<1%

蘇格蘭

$36,197,060 交易量

<1%

捷克

$17,689,492 交易量

<1%

埃及

$40,841,588 交易量

<1%

伊朗

$37,824,865 交易量

<1%

加納

$30,921,176 交易量

<1%

阿爾及利亞

$34,535,116 交易量

<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納

$18,644,701 交易量

<1%

剛果民主共和國

$52,661,118 交易量

<1%

澳洲

$42,000,111 交易量

<1%

紐西蘭

$45,003,797 交易量

<1%

海地

$31,704,285 交易量

<1%

約旦

$30,558,854 交易量

<1%

庫拉索

$40,704,659 交易量

<1%

突尼西亞

$31,157,905 交易量

<1%

烏茲別克

$55,803,503 交易量

<1%

巴拿馬

$18,403,888 交易量

<1%

伊拉克

$27,682,798 交易量

<1%

南非

$34,749,421 交易量

<1%

佛得角

$39,424,324 交易量

<1%

卡達

$40,720,090 交易量

<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯

$43,940,237 交易量

<1%

西班牙 16.2%

法國 16.2%

英格蘭 11.2%

葡萄牙 10.1%

$1,648,984,757 交易量

2026-07-20

西班牙

$30,792,544 交易量

16%

法國

$37,910,565 交易量

16%

英格蘭

$26,525,767 交易量

11%

葡萄牙

$31,738,040 交易量

10%

阿根廷

$27,690,213 交易量

巴西

$27,844,415 交易量

德國

$28,803,981 交易量

荷蘭

$31,255,352 交易量

挪威

$31,864,727 交易量

日本

$33,457,805 交易量

比利時

$29,307,824 交易量

哥倫比亞

$28,474,658 交易量

摩洛哥

$35,853,270 交易量

土耳其

$30,222,797 交易量

墨西哥

$35,797,813 交易量

瑞士

$30,539,935 交易量

美國

$46,720,954 交易量

烏拉圭

$29,628,381 交易量

克羅埃西亞

$38,900,061 交易量

厄瓜多

$36,178,013 交易量

塞內加爾

$31,130,660 交易量

象牙海岸

$47,310,892 交易量

<1%

奧地利

$34,344,587 交易量

<1%

瑞典

$21,424,682 交易量

<1%

南韓

$39,721,441 交易量

<1%

加拿大

$34,816,478 交易量

<1%

巴拉圭

$30,724,239 交易量

<1%

蘇格蘭

$36,197,060 交易量

<1%

捷克

$17,689,492 交易量

<1%

埃及

$40,841,588 交易量

<1%

伊朗

$37,824,865 交易量

<1%

加納

$30,921,176 交易量

<1%

阿爾及利亞

$34,535,116 交易量

<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納

$18,644,701 交易量

<1%

剛果民主共和國

$52,661,118 交易量

<1%

澳洲

$42,000,111 交易量

<1%

紐西蘭

$45,003,797 交易量

<1%

海地

$31,704,285 交易量

<1%

約旦

$30,558,854 交易量

<1%

庫拉索

$40,704,659 交易量

<1%

突尼西亞

$31,157,905 交易量

<1%

烏茲別克

$55,803,503 交易量

<1%

巴拿馬

$18,403,888 交易量

<1%

伊拉克

$27,682,798 交易量

<1%

南非

$34,749,421 交易量

<1%

佛得角

$39,424,324 交易量

<1%

卡達

$40,720,090 交易量

<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯

$43,940,237 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Spain and France lead the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner market at 16.2% implied probability each due to their exceptional squad depth, recent major tournament pedigree, and balanced attacking-defensive units featuring standouts like Lamine Yamal for La Roja and Kylian Mbappé for Les Bleus. England sits close behind at 11.2%, reflecting consistent European Championship final appearances and a strong qualifying campaign. Portugal, Argentina, and Brazil follow in a tight cluster, supported by star power and historical success, while the expanded 48-team format and North American hosting conditions introduce variables like travel demands that keep the field competitive. The bunched probabilities reflect the wisdom of crowds assessing multiple teams with realistic paths to the July final.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於 2026年6月7日上午3:30 [UTC]

Jun 6 2026

Iran confirms participation in 2026 FIFA World Cup despite geopolitical tensions

Despite ongoing conflicts and visa challenges, Iran's national team confirmed plans to participate in the World Cup, alleviating uncertainty and stabilizing market odds related to their involvement.

Jun 4 2026

Spain plays pre-World Cup friendly against Iraq

Spain's friendly match against Iraq served as a final preparation, providing insights into team form and readiness, influencing market sentiment.

Jun 1 2026

Final 26-player squads for World Cup 2026 officially submitted to FIFA

England dips to 11%3%

The official submission and announcement of final squads for all teams, including England and Argentina, led to market adjustments. England's price declined from 14% to 11% due to notable omissions, while Argentina's price slightly decreased amid cautious sentiment despite being reigning champions.

Dec 5 2025

FIFA announces 2026 World Cup draw, keeping top seeds apart

Spain rises to 16%1%

FIFA held the official draw for the 2026 World Cup, placing Spain, France, England, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, and the Netherlands in separate pots and groups, while Portugal was drawn into Group K. The separation of the top‑seeded teams reduced the perceived risk of early clashes, boosting confidence in the favourites and causing a sharp rise in their market prices.

Dec 5 2025

FIFA World Cup 2026 draw assigns groups to all eight market contenders

Germany drops to 6%12%

The official World Cup draw in Washington, D.C. placed Spain, France, England, Portugal, Argentina, Brazil, Germany and the Netherlands into specific groups, confirming their participation and affecting perceived pathways to the final. The draw boosted confidence in the traditionally strong sides (Spain, France, England) and hurt the odds for Germany and the Netherlands, which saw the steepest price declines.

Dec 5 2025

FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Draw places teams in groups and sets tournament schedule

The official draw assigned teams to groups, clarifying their tournament paths. Spain was drawn in Group H, Argentina in Group J, Portugal in Group K, France in Group I, Germany in Group A, and the Netherlands in Group F. This event influenced market prices by providing clarity on opponents and potential knockout routes.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於 2026年6月7日上午3:30 [UTC]

Jun 6 2026

Iran confirms participation in 2026 FIFA World Cup despite geopolitical tensions

Despite ongoing conflicts and visa challenges, Iran's national team confirmed plans to participate in the World Cup, alleviating uncertainty and stabilizing market odds related to their involvement.

Jun 4 2026

Spain plays pre-World Cup friendly against Iraq

Spain's friendly match against Iraq served as a final preparation, providing insights into team form and readiness, influencing market sentiment.

Jun 1 2026

Final 26-player squads for World Cup 2026 officially submitted to FIFA

England dips to 11%3%

Dec 5 2025

FIFA announces 2026 World Cup draw, keeping top seeds apart

Spain rises to 16%1%

Dec 5 2025

FIFA World Cup 2026 draw assigns groups to all eight market contenders

Germany drops to 6%12%

Dec 5 2025

FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Draw places teams in groups and sets tournament schedule

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"世界杯冠軍 " is a prediction market on Polymarket with 50+ possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "西班牙" at 16%, followed by "法國" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "世界杯冠軍 " has generated $1.6 billion in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 2, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "世界杯冠軍 ," browse the 50+ available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "世界杯冠軍 " is "西班牙" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "法國" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "世界杯冠軍 " define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "世界杯冠軍 ." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $1.6 billion traded on “世界杯冠軍 ,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "世界杯冠軍 ," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 16¢ for "西班牙" in the "世界杯冠軍 " market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 16% chance that "西班牙" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 16¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 84¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "世界杯冠軍 " market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jul 20, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "世界杯冠軍 " market has an active community of 1,030 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "世界杯冠軍 ." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

世界杯冠軍

世界杯冠軍

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盤口背景

規則

盤口背景

評論 (1,030)

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Frequently Asked Questions

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