Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads Polymarket trader consensus at 57.5% probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals at the Department of Labor over the past 30 days. An inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of agency resources for personal events—including a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress—and workplace misconduct has prompted multiple top aide resignations, including chief of staff Jihun Han and Rebecca Wright on March 3, plus a security staffer on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters over assault allegations in February. These developments signal mounting White House pressure, contrasting with Tulsi Gabbard's 12.3% and Pete Hegseth's 7.3% odds amid lower immediate risks, while "None before 2027" languishes at 7.2% given historical Cabinet turnover patterns. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Lori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
圖爾西·加巴德 12.3%
2027年前無人離開 7.6%
皮特·赫格塞斯 7.5%
$2,294,309 交易量
$2,294,309 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
57%
圖爾西·加巴德
12%
2027年前無人離開
8%
皮特·赫格塞斯
7%
霍華德·盧特尼克
3%
麥克·沃爾茲
3%
史考特·貝森特
2%
拉塞爾·T·沃特
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
道格·柯林斯
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Doug Burgum
1%
肖恩·達菲
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
羅伯特·F·甘迺迪 Jr.
1%
蘇茜·懷爾斯
1%
李澤林
1%
傑米森·格里爾
1%
凱莉·洛夫勒
1%
馬可·魯比歐
1%
琳達·麥馬洪
1%
約翰·拉特克利夫
1%
克里斯·賴特
1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
圖爾西·加巴德 12.3%
2027年前無人離開 7.6%
皮特·赫格塞斯 7.5%
$2,294,309 交易量
$2,294,309 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,308 交易量
57%
圖爾西·加巴德
$727,018 交易量
12%
2027年前無人離開
$619,896 交易量
8%
皮特·赫格塞斯
$577,431 交易量
7%
霍華德·盧特尼克
$26,207 交易量
3%
麥克·沃爾茲
$4,379 交易量
3%
史考特·貝森特
$4,573 交易量
2%
拉塞爾·T·沃特
$4,146 交易量
2%
J.D. Vance
$7,197 交易量
2%
道格·柯林斯
$3,527 交易量
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,770 交易量
2%
Doug Burgum
$6,065 交易量
1%
肖恩·達菲
$67,269 交易量
1%
Scott Turner
$5,646 交易量
1%
Pam Bondi
$4,128 交易量
1%
羅伯特·F·甘迺迪 Jr.
$3,565 交易量
1%
蘇茜·懷爾斯
$4,861 交易量
1%
李澤林
$70,939 交易量
1%
傑米森·格里爾
$4,846 交易量
1%
凱莉·洛夫勒
$3,960 交易量
1%
馬可·魯比歐
$50,572 交易量
1%
琳達·麥馬洪
$9,832 交易量
1%
約翰·拉特克利夫
$4,146 交易量
1%
克里斯·賴特
$4,028 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads Polymarket trader consensus at 57.5% probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals at the Department of Labor over the past 30 days. An inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of agency resources for personal events—including a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress—and workplace misconduct has prompted multiple top aide resignations, including chief of staff Jihun Han and Rebecca Wright on March 3, plus a security staffer on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters over assault allegations in February. These developments signal mounting White House pressure, contrasting with Tulsi Gabbard's 12.3% and Pete Hegseth's 7.3% odds amid lower immediate risks, while "None before 2027" languishes at 7.2% given historical Cabinet turnover patterns. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate resolution.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$2,294,309結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads Polymarket trader consensus at 57.5% probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals at the Department of Labor over the past 30 days. An inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of agency resources for personal events—including a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress—and workplace misconduct has prompted multiple top aide resignations, including chief of staff Jihun Han and Rebecca Wright on March 3, plus a security staffer on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters over assault allegations in February. These developments signal mounting White House pressure, contrasting with Tulsi Gabbard's 12.3% and Pete Hegseth's 7.3% odds amid lower immediate risks, while "None before 2027" languishes at 7.2% given historical Cabinet turnover patterns. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate resolution.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$2,294,309結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads Polymarket trader consensus at 57.5% probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals at the Department of Labor over the past 30 days. An inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of agency resources for personal events—including a disguised birthday party she denied to Congress—and workplace misconduct has prompted multiple top aide resignations, including chief of staff Jihun Han and Rebecca Wright on March 3, plus a security staffer on March 20 amid affair claims. Her husband was barred from headquarters over assault allegations in February. These developments signal mounting White House pressure, contrasting with Tulsi Gabbard's 12.3% and Pete Hegseth's 7.3% odds amid lower immediate risks, while "None before 2027" languishes at 7.2% given historical Cabinet turnover patterns. Upcoming congressional oversight could accelerate resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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