Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals including the resignation of her top aides in early March amid an inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds for personal events, and a hostile workplace; her bodyguard's exit last week over affair claims; and earlier barring of her husband from the department following staff assault accusations. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard follows at 17.2% amid tensions over her shifting stance on escalating U.S.-Iran military actions, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's controversial promotion blocks and hawkish rhetoric on Iran place him third at 9.5%, reflecting broader White House pressures on loyalty and performance ahead of midterms.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Lori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
圖爾西·加巴德 16.6%
皮特·赫格塞斯 9.5%
2027年前無人離開 6.9%
$2,533,155 交易量
$2,533,155 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
57%
圖爾西·加巴德
17%
皮特·赫格塞斯
10%
2027年前無人離開
7%
霍華德·盧特尼克
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
史考特·貝森特
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
麥克·沃爾茲
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
馬可·魯比歐
1%
肖恩·達菲
1%
Scott Turner
1%
傑米森·格里爾
1%
蘇茜·懷爾斯
1%
拉塞爾·T·沃特
1%
道格·柯林斯
1%
李澤林
1%
凱莉·洛夫勒
1%
約翰·拉特克利夫
1%
克里斯·賴特
1%
羅伯特·F·甘迺迪 Jr.
<1%
琳達·麥馬洪
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
圖爾西·加巴德 16.6%
皮特·赫格塞斯 9.5%
2027年前無人離開 6.9%
$2,533,155 交易量
$2,533,155 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,486 交易量
57%
圖爾西·加巴德
$727,352 交易量
17%
皮特·赫格塞斯
$676,755 交易量
10%
2027年前無人離開
$756,806 交易量
7%
霍華德·盧特尼克
$26,281 交易量
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,824 交易量
2%
J.D. Vance
$7,271 交易量
2%
史考特·貝森特
$4,627 交易量
1%
Doug Burgum
$6,119 交易量
1%
麥克·沃爾茲
$4,858 交易量
1%
Pam Bondi
$4,182 交易量
1%
馬可·魯比歐
$50,625 交易量
1%
肖恩·達菲
$67,324 交易量
1%
Scott Turner
$5,701 交易量
1%
傑米森·格里爾
$4,901 交易量
1%
蘇茜·懷爾斯
$4,916 交易量
1%
拉塞爾·T·沃特
$4,200 交易量
1%
道格·柯林斯
$3,581 交易量
1%
李澤林
$71,083 交易量
1%
凱莉·洛夫勒
$4,014 交易量
1%
約翰·拉特克利夫
$4,201 交易量
1%
克里斯·賴特
$4,133 交易量
1%
羅伯特·F·甘迺迪 Jr.
$3,619 交易量
<1%
琳達·麥馬洪
$10,298 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals including the resignation of her top aides in early March amid an inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds for personal events, and a hostile workplace; her bodyguard's exit last week over affair claims; and earlier barring of her husband from the department following staff assault accusations. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard follows at 17.2% amid tensions over her shifting stance on escalating U.S.-Iran military actions, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's controversial promotion blocks and hawkish rhetoric on Iran place him third at 9.5%, reflecting broader White House pressures on loyalty and performance ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$2,533,155結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals including the resignation of her top aides in early March amid an inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds for personal events, and a hostile workplace; her bodyguard's exit last week over affair claims; and earlier barring of her husband from the department following staff assault accusations. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard follows at 17.2% amid tensions over her shifting stance on escalating U.S.-Iran military actions, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's controversial promotion blocks and hawkish rhetoric on Iran place him third at 9.5%, reflecting broader White House pressures on loyalty and performance ahead of midterms.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
交易量
$2,533,155結束日期
Dec 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 57.5% implied probability to be the next Trump cabinet departure, driven by a cascade of recent scandals including the resignation of her top aides in early March amid an inspector general probe into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds for personal events, and a hostile workplace; her bodyguard's exit last week over affair claims; and earlier barring of her husband from the department following staff assault accusations. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard follows at 17.2% amid tensions over her shifting stance on escalating U.S.-Iran military actions, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's controversial promotion blocks and hawkish rhetoric on Iran place him third at 9.5%, reflecting broader White House pressures on loyalty and performance ahead of midterms.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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