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經濟艙·住房·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?

Market icon
經濟艙·住房·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?

327 - 330k 48.3%

<321k 24.9%

330 - 333k 15.8%

324 - 327k 7%

Polymarket

$12,694 交易量

327 - 330k 48.3%

<321k 24.9%

330 - 333k 15.8%

324 - 327k 7%

Polymarket

$12,694 交易量

<321k

$209 交易量

19%

321 - 324k

$2,799 交易量

5%

324 - 327k

$1,246 交易量

14%

327 - 330k

$6,833 交易量

54%

330 - 333k

$826 交易量

14%

333 - 336k

$204 交易量

1%

336 - 339k

$210 交易量

15%

>339k

$367 交易量

1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/22)Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to Chicago's median home value landing in the 327-330k range on April 1, per the Parcl Labs daily sales price index, anchored by late-March readings hovering near $328,000 with minimal day-to-day volatility. This positioning reflects Chicago's resilient pricing amid national softening trends—Parcl data indicates U.S. home prices down 1.4% over recent months for the first decline in over two years—driven by Redfin-reported record inventory surpluses of 630,000 more sellers than buyers. Local factors include steady 2.5% year-over-year ZHVI growth on Zillow, modest 5% appreciation forecasts for 2026 from the Institute for Housing Studies, and Federal Reserve's recent rate hold stabilizing 30-year mortgage affordability around 6.6%. With resolution imminent in days, thin trading volume reinforces stability over sharp swings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to Chicago's median home value landing in the 327-330k range on April 1, per the Parcl Labs daily sales price index, anchored by late-March readings hovering near $328,000 with minimal day-to-day volatility. This positioning reflects Chicago's resilient pricing amid national softening trends—Parcl data indicates U.S. home prices down 1.4% over recent months for the first decline in over two years—driven by Redfin-reported record inventory surpluses of 630,000 more sellers than buyers. Local factors include steady 2.5% year-over-year ZHVI growth on Zillow, modest 5% appreciation forecasts for 2026 from the Institute for Housing Studies, and Federal Reserve's recent rate hold stabilizing 30-year mortgage affordability around 6.6%. With resolution imminent in days, thin trading volume reinforces stability over sharp swings.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/22)Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to Chicago's median home value landing in the 327-330k range on April 1, per the Parcl Labs daily sales price index, anchored by late-March readings hovering near $328,000 with minimal day-to-day volatility. This positioning reflects Chicago's resilient pricing amid national softening trends—Parcl data indicates U.S. home prices down 1.4% over recent months for the first decline in over two years—driven by Redfin-reported record inventory surpluses of 630,000 more sellers than buyers. Local factors include steady 2.5% year-over-year ZHVI growth on Zillow, modest 5% appreciation forecasts for 2026 from the Institute for Housing Studies, and Federal Reserve's recent rate hold stabilizing 30-year mortgage affordability around 6.6%. With resolution imminent in days, thin trading volume reinforces stability over sharp swings.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 54% implied probability to Chicago's median home value landing in the 327-330k range on April 1, per the Parcl Labs daily sales price index, anchored by late-March readings hovering near $328,000 with minimal day-to-day volatility. This positioning reflects Chicago's resilient pricing amid national softening trends—Parcl data indicates U.S. home prices down 1.4% over recent months for the first decline in over two years—driven by Redfin-reported record inventory surpluses of 630,000 more sellers than buyers. Local factors include steady 2.5% year-over-year ZHVI growth on Zillow, modest 5% appreciation forecasts for 2026 from the Institute for Housing Studies, and Federal Reserve's recent rate hold stabilizing 30-year mortgage affordability around 6.6%. With resolution imminent in days, thin trading volume reinforces stability over sharp swings.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "327 - 330k" at 54%, followed by "<321k" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 54¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" has generated $12.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" is "327 - 330k" at 54%, meaning the market assigns a 54% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "<321k" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.