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政治·Navalny

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

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政治·Navalny

What will Biden say during State of the Union?

$76,519 交易量

Mar 6, 2024
Polymarket

$76,519 交易量

Polymarket
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Trump

$10,502 交易量

No

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Folks 4 or more times

$22,245 交易量

Yes

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China/Chinese 3 or more times

$2,401 交易量

Yes

Market icon

Border 3 or more times

$4,427 交易量

Yes

Market icon

Ukraine/Ukranian 3 or more times

$3,898 交易量

Yes

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Bitcoin

$6,290 交易量

No

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Ceasefire

$2,833 交易量

Yes

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AI/Artificial Intelligence

$8,040 交易量

Yes

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Fentanyl

$2,217 交易量

Yes

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Navalny

$3,754 交易量

No

Market icon

Putin

$1,560 交易量

Yes

Market icon

Hunter

$4,366 交易量

No

Market icon

Moon

$3,986 交易量

No

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Trump" or "trump" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. E.g. if Biden says "I have a trump card up my sleeve" this market will resolve to "Yes." If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "folks" four or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "China" or "Chinese" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "border" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ukraine" or "Ukranian" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Bitcoin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ceasefire" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed words, regardless of the context of their usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "fentanyl" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Navalny" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Putin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If Biden just says "Vladimir" it will not count for this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Hunter" or "hunter" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Update: Hyphenated compound words will count - non-hyphenated compound words will not count. For example, “Chinese-made” will count as saying “Chinese”, but “moonshot” will not count as saying “moon”. If it is unclear whether Biden said a compound/hyphenated word, the transcript will be used. Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Moon" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Trump" or "trump" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. E.g. if Biden says "I have a trump card up my sleeve" this market will resolve to "Yes." If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "folks" four or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "China" or "Chinese" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "border" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ukraine" or "Ukranian" three or more times during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Bitcoin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Ceasefire" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. In case of ambiguity, the official transcript and other credible sources may also be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the words will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed words, regardless of the context of their usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "fentanyl" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Navalny" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Putin" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If Biden just says "Vladimir" it will not count for this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Hunter" or "hunter" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Update: Hyphenated compound words will count - non-hyphenated compound words will not count. For example, “Chinese-made” will count as saying “Chinese”, but “moonshot” will not count as saying “moon”. If it is unclear whether Biden said a compound/hyphenated word, the transcript will be used. Note: Be aware that State of the Union prepared remarks are oftentimes released before the speech starts. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Biden says "Moon" during his State of the Union address, scheduled to take place on March 7, 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." This market's primary resolution source is live video of the SOTU available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFVUPAEF-sw. Only in the event of ambiguity may the official transcript and other credible sources be considered. Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market. Any mention of the listed word, regardless of the context of its usage, will count towards the resolution of this market. If the State of the Union does not take place by March 8, 2024 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Biden say during State of the Union?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Folks 4 or more times" at 100%, followed by " China/Chinese 3 or more times" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Biden say during State of the Union?" has generated $76.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 6, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Biden say during State of the Union?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Biden say during State of the Union?" is "Folks 4 or more times" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is " China/Chinese 3 or more times" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Biden say during State of the Union?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.