史達瑪在… ？

Name: 史達瑪在… ？
Start: 2025-02-03T18:45:44.284Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00.000Z

史達瑪在… ？ — 討論

guyontheearth · 2025-02-03T18:45:44.284Z

關於史達瑪在… ？的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

政治·Starmer

史達瑪在… ？

$9,960,079 交易量

Dec 31, 2026

3月31日

$711,577 交易量

4月30日

$46,145 交易量

6月30日

$1,264,632 交易量

45%

12月31日

$753,610 交易量

70%

$9,960,079 交易量

3月31日

$711,577 交易量

4月30日

$46,145 交易量

6月30日

$1,264,632 交易量

45%

12月31日

$753,610 交易量

70%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Labour's post-budget slump and internal rebellions form the core driver of trader consensus on Keir Starmer's tenure, with polls showing the party's support dipping to 25-30% amid Reform UK's surge and Conservative recovery. Chancellor Rachel Reeves' October tax hikes on employers and farmers, coupled with winter fuel payment cuts for millions of pensioners, sparked widespread backlash, including 49 Labour MPs defying the whip on a welfare bill in November. Starmer's net approval ratings hover near historic lows at -50 or worse, fueling speculation of leadership pressure despite no formal challenge yet. Traders eye May 2025 local elections and further fiscal votes as pivotal tests that could accelerate party infighting or stabilize his position.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 21, 2026, 4:27 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"史達瑪在… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 70%, followed by "6月30日" at 45%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "史達瑪在… ？" has generated $10 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "史達瑪在… ？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "史達瑪在… ？" is "12月31日" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 45%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "史達瑪在… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "史達瑪在… ？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $10 million traded on “史達瑪在… ？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "史達瑪在… ？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 70¢ for "12月31日" in the "史達瑪在… ？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 70% chance that "12月31日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 70¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 30¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "史達瑪在… ？" market's scheduled end date has passed, but the market has not yet been officially resolved. The end date indicates when the underlying event is expected to occur or become knowable. It is not the moment trading stops. The market remains open for trading until the outcome is formally resolved through the resolution process. You can still buy, sell, or close your position while the market is pending resolution. Check the resolution status tracker and "Rules" section on this page for updates on the resolution timeline.

The "史達瑪在… ？" market has an active community of 340 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "史達瑪在… ？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

史達瑪在… ？

史達瑪在… ？

規則

盤口背景

盤口背景

評論 (340)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "史達瑪在… ？" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "史達瑪在… ？" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "史達瑪在… ？"?

What are the current odds for "史達瑪在… ？"?

How will "史達瑪在… ？" be resolved?

Can I follow "史達瑪在… ？" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "史達瑪在… ？" considered reliable?

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What does a price of 70¢ for "12月31日" mean?

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