Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51% implied probability for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing below $23,500 in December, edging out the 43% odds for exceeding $36,000, reflecting tight competition amid recent volatility. NDX hovers near 25,300 after a 10% correction from October 2026 highs, driven by downward revisions to December jobs data (from +48,000 to -17,000) and Treasury yield spikes on Iran tensions and Trump comments, fueling recession fears and rate hike risks. Countering this, AI capex momentum and robust tech earnings support bullish bets, with analyst forecasts targeting 30,000+ by year-end. Key differentiators include upcoming Q2 earnings, May FOMC meeting, and April CPI data, which could validate either downside support at 24,100 or breakout above 25,500.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$23,500-$25,000 84%
$30,500-$33,000 43%
$33,000-$36,000 43%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
<$23,500
51%
$23,500-$25,000
84%
$25,000-$26,500
41%
$26,500-$28,500
41%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
43%
$33,000-$36,000
43%
>$36,000
45%
$23,500-$25,000 84%
$30,500-$33,000 43%
$33,000-$36,000 43%
$25,000-$26,500 41%
<$23,500
51%
$23,500-$25,000
84%
$25,000-$26,500
41%
$26,500-$28,500
41%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
43%
$33,000-$36,000
43%
>$36,000
45%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 51% implied probability for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) closing below $23,500 in December, edging out the 43% odds for exceeding $36,000, reflecting tight competition amid recent volatility. NDX hovers near 25,300 after a 10% correction from October 2026 highs, driven by downward revisions to December jobs data (from +48,000 to -17,000) and Treasury yield spikes on Iran tensions and Trump comments, fueling recession fears and rate hike risks. Countering this, AI capex momentum and robust tech earnings support bullish bets, with analyst forecasts targeting 30,000+ by year-end. Key differentiators include upcoming Q2 earnings, May FOMC meeting, and April CPI data, which could validate either downside support at 24,100 or breakout above 25,500.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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