Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in São Paulo on April 3, 2026, driven by preliminary observational data from the resolution source—Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) station via Weather Underground—confirming this peak amid partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers. Forecasts from INMET and the city's Centro de Gerenciamento de Emergências Climáticas (CGE) had projected highs near 28–30°C under typical autumn anticyclonic conditions with moderate humidity, aligning with historical April averages of 26–28°C but slightly elevated due to light southerly winds limiting cooling. Realistic challenges would require rare post-processing revisions to SBGR records or discrepancies in automated sensor data, though model consensus and real-time reports provide strong evidentiary support for this outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 3?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on April 3?
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$99,272 交易量
$99,272 交易量
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$99,272 交易量
$99,272 交易量
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:02 PM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 30°C in São Paulo on April 3, 2026, driven by preliminary observational data from the resolution source—Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR) station via Weather Underground—confirming this peak amid partly cloudy skies and isolated afternoon showers. Forecasts from INMET and the city's Centro de Gerenciamento de Emergências Climáticas (CGE) had projected highs near 28–30°C under typical autumn anticyclonic conditions with moderate humidity, aligning with historical April averages of 26–28°C but slightly elevated due to light southerly winds limiting cooling. Realistic challenges would require rare post-processing revisions to SBGR records or discrepancies in automated sensor data, though model consensus and real-time reports provide strong evidentiary support for this outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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