Strong El Niño conditions, now with over 90% odds of a very strong event per NOAA, are shaping early-season temperature and precipitation patterns across North America. High-elevation sites in the northern Rockies, including parts of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado above 13,000 feet, have already recorded light snow dustings in recent days amid subtropical moisture and cooling aloft. Climatological averages place first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more at official stations) in these mountains by late September, while lower elevations and eastern cities typically wait until October or November. Key variables include the precise storm track, which current guidance suggests may favor the southern Rockies and interior Northeast sooner than the warmer, drier Northwest. Traders should monitor updated NOAA ENSO discussions, NWS short-range forecasts, and model consensus shifts ahead of October resolution windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年第一場雪
$12,464 交易量

紐約州水牛城,10月31日前
65%

丹佛,科羅拉多州 10月31日之前
80%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼蘇達州 10月31日前
63%

猶他州鹽湖城至10月31日
48%

波士頓(麻薩諸塞州)在11月15日之前
70%

11月15日前的紐約州水牛城
77%

芝加哥,伊利諾州於11月15日之前
79%

丹佛,科羅拉多,11月15日前
66%

底特律,密西根州,11月15日前
82%

印第安納波利斯,印第安納州在11月15日前
90%

堪薩斯市,密蘇里州,11月15日前
51%

明尼阿波利斯(MN)11月15日前
88%

賓夕法尼亞州匹茲堡,11月15日前
63%

鹽湖城(猶他州)11月15日前
79%

波士頓,麻薩諸塞州 11月30日前
83%

紐約州布法羅在11月30日前
92%

芝加哥,伊利諾州截至11月30日
77%

辛辛那提,俄亥俄州 11月30日前
83%

達拉斯,德克薩斯州 11月30日之前
17%

科羅拉多州丹佛,至 11 月 30 日
99%

底特律(密西根州)11月30日前
87%

印第安納波利斯,印第安那州在11月30日前
98%

堪薩斯市(密蘇里州),11月30日之前
73%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼蘇達州 於11月30日前
94%

田納西州納什維爾,11月30日之前
29%

紐約市(NY),截至11月30日
68%

費城,賓夕法尼亞州 11月30日前
66%

賓夕法尼亞州匹茲堡在11月30日之前
77%

鹽湖城,猶他州在11月30日前
86%

聖路易斯(密蘇里州)11月30日前
75%

華盛頓特區,11月30日前
43%
$12,464 交易量

紐約州水牛城,10月31日前
65%

丹佛,科羅拉多州 10月31日之前
80%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼蘇達州 10月31日前
63%

猶他州鹽湖城至10月31日
48%

波士頓(麻薩諸塞州)在11月15日之前
70%

11月15日前的紐約州水牛城
77%

芝加哥,伊利諾州於11月15日之前
79%

丹佛,科羅拉多,11月15日前
66%

底特律,密西根州,11月15日前
82%

印第安納波利斯,印第安納州在11月15日前
90%

堪薩斯市,密蘇里州,11月15日前
51%

明尼阿波利斯(MN)11月15日前
88%

賓夕法尼亞州匹茲堡,11月15日前
63%

鹽湖城(猶他州)11月15日前
79%

波士頓,麻薩諸塞州 11月30日前
83%

紐約州布法羅在11月30日前
92%

芝加哥,伊利諾州截至11月30日
77%

辛辛那提,俄亥俄州 11月30日前
83%

達拉斯,德克薩斯州 11月30日之前
17%

科羅拉多州丹佛,至 11 月 30 日
99%

底特律(密西根州)11月30日前
87%

印第安納波利斯,印第安那州在11月30日前
98%

堪薩斯市(密蘇里州),11月30日之前
73%

明尼阿波利斯,明尼蘇達州 於11月30日前
94%

田納西州納什維爾,11月30日之前
29%

紐約市(NY),截至11月30日
68%

費城,賓夕法尼亞州 11月30日前
66%

賓夕法尼亞州匹茲堡在11月30日之前
77%

鹽湖城,猶他州在11月30日前
86%

聖路易斯(密蘇里州)11月30日前
75%

華盛頓特區,11月30日前
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
市場開放時間: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Strong El Niño conditions, now with over 90% odds of a very strong event per NOAA, are shaping early-season temperature and precipitation patterns across North America. High-elevation sites in the northern Rockies, including parts of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado above 13,000 feet, have already recorded light snow dustings in recent days amid subtropical moisture and cooling aloft. Climatological averages place first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more at official stations) in these mountains by late September, while lower elevations and eastern cities typically wait until October or November. Key variables include the precise storm track, which current guidance suggests may favor the southern Rockies and interior Northeast sooner than the warmer, drier Northwest. Traders should monitor updated NOAA ENSO discussions, NWS short-range forecasts, and model consensus shifts ahead of October resolution windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


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