Recent FOMC projections and September minutes underscore persistent inflation near 3% core PCE alongside resilient labor markets, driving trader consensus toward at least one additional 25-basis-point hike by year-end after the September move to the 3.75-4.00% target range. With the October 27-28 meeting viewed as a near-certain pause amid cooling data and pre-election timing, the 64.5% implied probability on Hike-Pause-Hike reflects expectations of a December 8-9 tightening to align with the median dot-plot forecast of 4.1%. Futures markets currently price an 85% chance of at least one hike by December and under 20% for two, underscoring how incoming CPI and employment releases could shift odds between the leading paths.