Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price an 84% implied probability for the Bank of Russia to decrease its key rate at the April 26 meeting, driven by cooling inflation now at 7.7% year-over-year in March—down from peaks above 8.5%—and moderating wage growth amid capacity constraints in a war-heated economy. This marks trader consensus for the first cut since September 2022, potentially by 100 basis points to 15%, aligning with Reuters poll medians and Elvira Nabiullina's recent signals of easing if disinflation persists. No-change odds at 15% reflect residual overheating risks from robust GDP expansion, while a hike at 0.9% appears negligible given ruble stabilization and slowing industrial output.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於下調 84%
維持不變 15%
上調 1.0%
$16,742 交易量
$16,742 交易量
下調
84%
維持不變
15%
上調
1%
下調 84%
維持不變 15%
上調 1.0%
$16,742 交易量
$16,742 交易量
下調
84%
維持不變
15%
上調
1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price an 84% implied probability for the Bank of Russia to decrease its key rate at the April 26 meeting, driven by cooling inflation now at 7.7% year-over-year in March—down from peaks above 8.5%—and moderating wage growth amid capacity constraints in a war-heated economy. This marks trader consensus for the first cut since September 2022, potentially by 100 basis points to 15%, aligning with Reuters poll medians and Elvira Nabiullina's recent signals of easing if disinflation persists. No-change odds at 15% reflect residual overheating risks from robust GDP expansion, while a hike at 0.9% appears negligible given ruble stabilization and slowing industrial output.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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