Polymarket traders price a 52.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, driven by the Central Bank's January 2026 shift to inflation-linked crawling bands that permit controlled monthly peso depreciation. With February CPI at 2.9% monthly and March estimates near 3%, bands have adjusted upward—April's upper limit at 1,657 rising to around 1,703 by month-end—cumulatively supporting trader consensus for roughly 15-20% devaluation from the current ~1,395 rate. Robust BCRA reserves of $44 billion, bolstered by recent net dollar purchases exceeding $4.4 billion YTD, provide intervention capacity but do not offset inflation pressures. Lower outcomes like <1250 carry just 10.1% odds amid disinflation progress yet persistent 25-30% annual inflation forecasts; watch March CPI and May band updates for sentiment shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於1600.00以上 41%
<1250.00 10.1%
1350.00–1399.99 8.1%
1500.00–1549.99 7.6%
<1250.00
10%
1250.00–1299.99
8%
1300.00–1349.99
5%
1350.00–1399.99
8%
1400.00–1449.99
6%
1450.00–1499.99
8%
1500.00–1549.99
9%
1550.00–1599.99
6%
1600.00以上
53%
1600.00以上 41%
<1250.00 10.1%
1350.00–1399.99 8.1%
1500.00–1549.99 7.6%
<1250.00
10%
1250.00–1299.99
8%
1300.00–1349.99
5%
1350.00–1399.99
8%
1400.00–1449.99
6%
1450.00–1499.99
8%
1500.00–1549.99
9%
1550.00–1599.99
6%
1600.00以上
53%
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 10:25 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 52.5% implied probability for Argentina's official USD/ARS exchange rate exceeding 1600 by end-2026, driven by the Central Bank's January 2026 shift to inflation-linked crawling bands that permit controlled monthly peso depreciation. With February CPI at 2.9% monthly and March estimates near 3%, bands have adjusted upward—April's upper limit at 1,657 rising to around 1,703 by month-end—cumulatively supporting trader consensus for roughly 15-20% devaluation from the current ~1,395 rate. Robust BCRA reserves of $44 billion, bolstered by recent net dollar purchases exceeding $4.4 billion YTD, provide intervention capacity but do not offset inflation pressures. Lower outcomes like <1250 carry just 10.1% odds amid disinflation progress yet persistent 25-30% annual inflation forecasts; watch March CPI and May band updates for sentiment shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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