Spain commands a narrow edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their Euro 2024 dominance, unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign, and midfield mastery from Rodri, Pedri, and wing wizardry of Lamine Yamal, positioning them as the most balanced contender 100 days out. England follows tightly at 12.8% with Premier League-forged depth and consistent Nations League showings, while France (10.9%) boasts Kylian Mbappé's explosive attack, and defending champions Argentina (10.1%) cling to Lionel Messi's guile amid an aging core. Brazil's 8.6% reflects CONMEBOL topping the standings post-qualifiers, but squad transitions temper expectations. The bunched odds underscore an ultra-competitive field in the expanded 48-team format, with the group draw shielding elites until knockouts and upsets ever-looming in tournament soccer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$399,269,105 交易量
$399,269,105 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
烏拉圭
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多
1%
瑞士
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
加納
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$399,269,105 交易量
$399,269,105 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
烏拉圭
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多
1%
瑞士
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
加納
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain commands a narrow edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, fueled by their Euro 2024 dominance, unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign, and midfield mastery from Rodri, Pedri, and wing wizardry of Lamine Yamal, positioning them as the most balanced contender 100 days out. England follows tightly at 12.8% with Premier League-forged depth and consistent Nations League showings, while France (10.9%) boasts Kylian Mbappé's explosive attack, and defending champions Argentina (10.1%) cling to Lionel Messi's guile amid an aging core. Brazil's 8.6% reflects CONMEBOL topping the standings post-qualifiers, but squad transitions temper expectations. The bunched odds underscore an ultra-competitive field in the expanded 48-team format, with the group draw shielding elites until knockouts and upsets ever-looming in tournament soccer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions