Spain's advancement past the Netherlands on penalties in their UEFA World Cup qualifier playoff second leg on March 23—tying 5-5 aggregate before a 5-4 shootout win—has propelled them to the top of trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their Euro 2024 title defense momentum and stars like Yamal and Pedri. The market remains tightly contested among Europe and South America's powerhouses, with England (12.8%) building under Thomas Tuchel ahead of March friendlies against Uruguay and Japan, France (11.1%) showcasing depth in recent Colombia clash, and Argentina (9.8%) leveraging Messi's influence post-qualification. Ongoing confederation play-offs through March 31 introduce late qualifiers like Curaçao, underscoring parity in the expanded 48-team field and neutral North American venues.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$420,250,079 交易量
$420,250,079 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
烏拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加納
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$420,250,079 交易量
$420,250,079 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
烏拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加納
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain's advancement past the Netherlands on penalties in their UEFA World Cup qualifier playoff second leg on March 23—tying 5-5 aggregate before a 5-4 shootout win—has propelled them to the top of trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their Euro 2024 title defense momentum and stars like Yamal and Pedri. The market remains tightly contested among Europe and South America's powerhouses, with England (12.8%) building under Thomas Tuchel ahead of March friendlies against Uruguay and Japan, France (11.1%) showcasing depth in recent Colombia clash, and Argentina (9.8%) leveraging Messi's influence post-qualification. Ongoing confederation play-offs through March 31 introduce late qualifiers like Curaçao, underscoring parity in the expanded 48-team field and neutral North American venues.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions