Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at a modest 16% implied probability following the completion of qualifiers on March 31, with playoffs awarding final spots to surprise entrants like Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan, expanding the 48-team field and heightening upset potential in the group stage and knockout rounds. Their edge stems from topping UEFA Group E unbeaten, Euro 2024 triumph, and youthful firepower from Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsí amid a dominant March squad call-up. France (13%) counters with Kylian Mbappé-led depth after strong group leadership, while England (12%) boasts a perfect qualifying record, Argentina (9%) leverages Lionel Messi's experience despite age concerns, and Brazil (9%) relies on CONMEBOL supremacy. The bunched top tier reflects the expanded format's leniency—top-two group finishers plus eight best thirds advance—balanced by North American home-soil dynamics, injury risks to aging stars, and historical knockout volatility keeping the race wide open.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 16.0%
法國 13.1%
英格蘭 11.8%
阿根廷 9.2%
$480,855,347 交易量
$480,855,347 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
13%

英格蘭
12%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

日本
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

厄瓜多
1%

土耳其
1%

塞內加爾
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

庫拉索
<1%
西班牙 16.0%
法國 13.1%
英格蘭 11.8%
阿根廷 9.2%
$480,855,347 交易量
$480,855,347 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
13%

英格蘭
12%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

日本
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

烏拉圭
1%

墨西哥
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

厄瓜多
1%

土耳其
1%

塞內加爾
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

庫拉索
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at a modest 16% implied probability following the completion of qualifiers on March 31, with playoffs awarding final spots to surprise entrants like Cape Verde, Curaçao, Jordan, and Uzbekistan, expanding the 48-team field and heightening upset potential in the group stage and knockout rounds. Their edge stems from topping UEFA Group E unbeaten, Euro 2024 triumph, and youthful firepower from Lamine Yamal and Pau Cubarsí amid a dominant March squad call-up. France (13%) counters with Kylian Mbappé-led depth after strong group leadership, while England (12%) boasts a perfect qualifying record, Argentina (9%) leverages Lionel Messi's experience despite age concerns, and Brazil (9%) relies on CONMEBOL supremacy. The bunched top tier reflects the expanded format's leniency—top-two group finishers plus eight best thirds advance—balanced by North American home-soil dynamics, injury risks to aging stars, and historical knockout volatility keeping the race wide open.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions