Spain edges trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a flawless UEFA qualifying campaign including a recent 2-0 victory over Georgia and lingering Euro 2024 momentum with stars like Yamal and Pedri in peak form. England trails closely at 12.8% after demolishing Latvia 5-0 in qualifiers but drawing 1-1 with Uruguay in a March friendly, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities under Tuchel. France (10.9%) and Argentina (10.1%) remain competitive via talent depth—Mbappé's explosiveness and Messi's experience—while Brazil (8.6%) lags from qualifier inconsistencies. This tight cluster reflects parity among UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses in the expanded 48-team format, balanced draws, and upset potential across group stage and knockouts on neutral North American soil.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$399,199,711 交易量
$399,199,711 交易量

西班牙
16%

英格蘭
13%

法國
11%

阿根廷
10%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

意大利
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

日本
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多
1%

瑞士
1%

塞內加爾
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

埃及
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

加納
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$399,199,711 交易量
$399,199,711 交易量

西班牙
16%

英格蘭
13%

法國
11%

阿根廷
10%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

意大利
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

日本
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多
1%

瑞士
1%

塞內加爾
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

埃及
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

加納
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

南非
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

伊朗
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain edges trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, bolstered by a flawless UEFA qualifying campaign including a recent 2-0 victory over Georgia and lingering Euro 2024 momentum with stars like Yamal and Pedri in peak form. England trails closely at 12.8% after demolishing Latvia 5-0 in qualifiers but drawing 1-1 with Uruguay in a March friendly, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities under Tuchel. France (10.9%) and Argentina (10.1%) remain competitive via talent depth—Mbappé's explosiveness and Messi's experience—while Brazil (8.6%) lags from qualifier inconsistencies. This tight cluster reflects parity among UEFA and CONMEBOL powerhouses in the expanded 48-team format, balanced draws, and upset potential across group stage and knockouts on neutral North American soil.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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