Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their unbeaten UEFA qualifiers and lingering Euro 2024 dominance featuring stars like Lamine Yamal and Rodri. However, the race stays tightly contested with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%) close behind, as UEFA playoffs wrapped March 26—advancing Italy, Czechia, and Bosnia—while Argentina topped CONMEBOL's table with 38 points for direct qualification. France's recent 2-1 friendly win over Brazil in Massachusetts sharpened sentiment, offsetting Portugal's dip from Cristiano Ronaldo injury concerns, amid an expanded 48-team field amplifying upset potential, strong recent form across contenders, and unresolved factors like final rosters and group draw.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$397,496,095 交易量
$397,496,095 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
3%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
烏拉圭
1%
日本
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加納
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格蘭 12.8%
法國 10.9%
阿根廷 10.1%
$397,496,095 交易量
$397,496,095 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格蘭
13%
法國
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德國
5%
荷蘭
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
3%
比利時
2%
哥倫比亞
2%
美國
2%
摩洛哥
2%
烏拉圭
1%
日本
1%
克羅埃西亞
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多
1%
塞內加爾
1%
加拿大
1%
奧地利
1%
南韓
<1%
巴拉圭
<1%
象牙海岸
<1%
阿爾及利亞
<1%
蘇格蘭
<1%
澳洲
<1%
沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
約旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加納
<1%
突尼西亞
<1%
烏茲別克
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
卡達
<1%
紐西蘭
<1%
庫拉索
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their unbeaten UEFA qualifiers and lingering Euro 2024 dominance featuring stars like Lamine Yamal and Rodri. However, the race stays tightly contested with England (12.8%), France (10.9%), Argentina (10.1%), and Brazil (8.6%) close behind, as UEFA playoffs wrapped March 26—advancing Italy, Czechia, and Bosnia—while Argentina topped CONMEBOL's table with 38 points for direct qualification. France's recent 2-1 friendly win over Brazil in Massachusetts sharpened sentiment, offsetting Portugal's dip from Cristiano Ronaldo injury concerns, amid an expanded 48-team field amplifying upset potential, strong recent form across contenders, and unresolved factors like final rosters and group draw.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions