Spain leads trader consensus at 16.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following a dominant qualification campaign, capped by an almost flawless run through UEFA qualifiers ending March 31, including no defeats in 31 straight matches and their Euro 2024 triumph providing momentum with stars like Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri in peak form. France (13.0%) and England (11.9%) trail closely, buoyed by recent Nations League showings and deep squads, while Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) hold firm on South American qualification strength and Messi-led pedigree. The bunched top probabilities reflect the expanded 48-team field's parity, with multiple European powerhouses, CONMEBOL giants, and surprise qualifiers like Curaçao creating knockout volatility and no clear dynasty amid aging legends and rising talents.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於西班牙 16.1%
法國 13.0%
英格蘭 12.0%
阿根廷 9.3%
$468,617,311 交易量
$468,617,311 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
13%

英格蘭
12%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

日本
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多
1%

土耳其
1%

塞內加爾
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

庫拉索
<1%
西班牙 16.1%
法國 13.0%
英格蘭 12.0%
阿根廷 9.3%
$468,617,311 交易量
$468,617,311 交易量

西班牙
16%

法國
13%

英格蘭
12%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
3%

比利時
2%

日本
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

美國
2%

摩洛哥
2%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

瑞士
1%

墨西哥
1%

厄瓜多
1%

土耳其
1%

塞內加爾
1%

瑞典
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

埃及
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

捷克
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

伊朗
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

庫拉索
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads trader consensus at 16.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup following a dominant qualification campaign, capped by an almost flawless run through UEFA qualifiers ending March 31, including no defeats in 31 straight matches and their Euro 2024 triumph providing momentum with stars like Yamal, Pedri, and Rodri in peak form. France (13.0%) and England (11.9%) trail closely, buoyed by recent Nations League showings and deep squads, while Argentina (9.3%) and Brazil (8.6%) hold firm on South American qualification strength and Messi-led pedigree. The bunched top probabilities reflect the expanded 48-team field's parity, with multiple European powerhouses, CONMEBOL giants, and surprise qualifiers like Curaçao creating knockout volatility and no clear dynasty amid aging legends and rising talents.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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