Market icon

Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025?

<1% chance

$92,718 交易量

規則

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of March 10, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of March 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

交易量
$92,718
結束日期
Dec 31, 2025
建立於
Mar 10, 2025, 1:46 PM ET

已提議結果: No

無爭議

最終結果: No

注意外部連結。

Market icon

Will a US ally get a nuke in 2025?

<1% chance

$92,718 交易量

關於

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of March 10, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of March 10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

交易量
$92,718
結束日期
Dec 31, 2025
建立於
Mar 10, 2025, 1:46 PM ET

已提議結果: No

無爭議

最終結果: No

注意外部連結。