Name: US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?
Start: 2025-01-16T15:45:02.018858Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Ethereum in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Ethereum does not count as holding Ethereum reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

國家以太坊儲備

US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Ethereum in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Ethereum does not count as holding Ethereum reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

美國國家以太坊儲備會在2027年前成立嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) is not the second or first largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at any point between January 1, and December 31, 2026 ET, according to CoinGecko. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be CoinGecko. If CoinGecko becomes permanently unavailable, another credible source will be chosen. If there is ambiguity, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

以太坊在2026年逆轉了嗎？

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high
- US national Bitcoin reserve

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_Crypto.pdf

什麼都沒發生過：加密貨幣篇

his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.

This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.

A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

在2027年前，以太坊平均每月燃料費價格會達到5 Gwei嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitmine officially announces that the company’s total Ethereum holdings are equal to or greater than the number specified in the title at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Bitmine as to their total ETH holdings.

For reference, Bitmine's reported ETH holdings can be tracked at: https://www.bitminetech.io/investor-relations#sec-filings

 market will be official announcements from Bitmine as to their total ETH holdings.

Bitmine會在2027年前宣布其持有超過500萬枚ETH嗎？

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

USDT市值會在2027年之前達到2,000億美元嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

美國政府將於1月31日資金中斷？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT between 16 December '25 16:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

以太坊在2026年12月31日前創下歷史新高？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普會在2026年12月31日前辭職嗎？

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

到2026年12月31日，USDC市值會達到USDT市值的50%嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普會在2027年前取消加密貨幣的資本利得稅嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2026年期中選舉會如期舉行嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2026年聯邦利率會上調嗎？

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


馬斯克會在2025年削減至少5%的預算嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

美國會在2027年前確認外星人存在嗎？

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Elon 會在 2025 年將預算削減至少 10% 嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

傑羅姆·鮑威爾在6月30日前被聯邦起訴？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


鮑威爾在2027年前會坐牢嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Revolut會在2026年推出美元穩定幣嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X 會在 2026 年推出美元穩定幣嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USD-denominated stablecoin supply falls below 99% of total stablecoin supply at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is Artemis (https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins), using the “Stablecoin Supply by Currency” chart. The USD percentage shown when hovering over a monthly data point will be used.

A monthly data point will be considered finalized once the following month’s data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

2026年美元計價穩定幣的市場份額會跌破99%嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


MetaMask會在2026年9月30日之前推出代幣嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

2026年最高法院出現空缺？

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- Another US strike on Venezuela
- US strikes Iran
- US strike on Colombia
- US strike on Mexico
- US strike on Cuba

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If no qualifying strike is confirmed by the resolution date, this market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEHUSStrike.pdf

什麼都沒發生：美國罷工特輯

This market will resolve to "Gold" if, between October 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 per troy ounce during regular trading hours before Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds that same price according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT.

This market will resolve to "ETH" if, within that same timeframe, Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT before the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds that same price per troy ounce during regular trading hours.

If neither Gold nor Ethereum reach $5,000.00 within this market's timeframe, or if they reach that price at the exact same moment, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for Gold prices will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

The resolution source Ethereum prices is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Note: This market's resolution is based specifically on the listed resolution sources, not according to other sources or spot markets.

搶先達到5000：黃金還是以太幣？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


到2026年12月31日，Felix Protocol會推出代幣嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?

市場背景

US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?

規則

US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?

市場背景

US national Ethereum reserve in 2025?

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