Name: US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
Start: 2024-12-31T16:57:44.446986Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

美國國家比特幣儲備

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced on multiple platforms that the U.S. government has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve, with expectations that all G20 nations will follow suit soon. Major financial institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan are deeply integrating crypto, signaling a global paradigm shift towards irreversible adoption.

Bitcoin Reserve Gains Traction

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong on CNBC:  

Big banks and institutions are all in on crypto.  

US government now has a strategic Bitcoin reserve.  

$ETH / $BMNR 

 https://t.co/FS3rj50Sbv

🚨 Coinbase CEO said LIVE on Fox that ALL G20 NATIONS will establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve soon!!! 😱😱😱⚡️

IS THIS THE SIGNAL THAT GLOBAL ADOPTION IS IRREVERSIBLE?!!! 🔥🔥🔥 https://t.co/39p8WgA6H9

🚨 BREAKING: COINBASE CEO CONFIRMS CRYPTO PARADIGM SHIFT

“The world’s largest financial institutions are deeply integrating crypto. And yes, the U.S. government now holds a strategic Bitcoin reserve.” 
Brian Armstrong, CNBC

• BlackRock, Fidelity, JPMorgan, Citi all in
• ETFs https://t.co/wbzhneJkvp

My Bitcoin investment strategy. If the United States passes a strategic reserve bill for Bitcoin I'll continue to hold it. If they don't, I'm dumping it. 

See what I just did there?
See who really controls Bitcoin, now? It's not Satoshiand it's not Michael Saylor. It's the https://t.co/7lLQHF4n6P

BREAKING: 

A U.S. CONGRESSMAN JUST SAID THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD.

Rep. Nick Begich:

“America should buy 1 million Bitcoin  
to build a strategic national reserve.”

That’s almost 5% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.

At current prices: $86+ billion on the U.S. balance sheet. https://t.co/dwD6cYJ8Sb

Coinbase CEO stated live on Fox that all G20 nations are expected to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve soon. 

Bullish or what 🔥

 https://t.co/dRRV2scy0y

Binance holds 41% of crypto volume while US pushes 1M BTC reserve proposal.

Two narratives driving momentum: exchange centralization and institutional adoption accelerating.
1) Binance Ecosystem: 35% of Bitcoin volume + BNB up 243% + PayPay's 70M users onboarding + 8% staking https://t.co/vSDfUSQ9dn

"Senator Lummis confirmed she is leaving in 2027." — Nico

On the latest Simply Bitcoin episode: "DOES This CONFIRM America will never Buy Bitcoin?!"

Full overview: The host discusses recent political setbacks for a proposed U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve after Bo Hines resigned https://t.co/bvEFyKGnH0

Happy holidays from Coinchange!

As we are approaching 2026, let’s look back on what shaped the industry this year:

• Jan: BTC $109K ATH, Trump EO creates Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, MicroStrategy adds 11K BTC, ETFs hit $4.5B inflows

• Feb: SEC drops enforcement against https://t.co/WfppzFGnHw

No significant events or updates have been reported in the analyzed content. The absence of notable activity suggests a period of stability or lack of major influencing factors at this time.

Due to the absence of specific tweets or data provided for analysis, no detailed summary of events or market influences can be generated at this time. Please provide relevant social media content or other data sources for a comprehensive overview of the situation.

No significant events or news were reported in the provided data to influence market movements. Further information is needed to assess any potential impact.

No significant social media activity or specific events were reported in the provided data to summarize. Further information is needed to assess any impact on market movements.

No significant events or updates have been reported in the provided data. Further information is needed to assess any impact on market movements.

President Trump signed an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, marking a significant shift in U.S. policy by treating Bitcoin as a national asset. Additionally, a new bill introduced in Congress proposes allowing taxes to be paid in Bitcoin without capital gains tax, alongside growing state-level adoption like Texas launching its own reserve.

Trump Establishes Bitcoin Reserve

🚨 BREAKING:
President Trump signs an Executive Order to establish a Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve 🇺🇸₿

This isn’t just news…
This changes EVERYTHING. https://t.co/mzbpZcB8JT

🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER ESTABLISHING A STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE 

THIS CHANGED EVERYTHING https://t.co/XkMU0OWQHx

TRUMP FAMILY WILL ACCEPT $BTC AT ALL PROPERTIES  - ERIC TRUMP 

Eric Trump announced that the Trump Organization will begin accepting Bitcoin across all of its properties ; a powerful signal that mainstream adoption is accelerating. 

Crypto isn’t a trend. "It’s modern-day https://t.co/Pg2qQRjjIx

🚨 Historic move 🇺🇸
A new strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill in Congress could allow taxes to be paid in BTC with no capital gains tax. 
This signals a potential shift toward mainstream adoption and legitimization of Bitcoin as a national financial tool.  #Bitcoin #Crypto #Resmanapp https://t.co/EF5B7BHfjz

🚨🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER ESTABLISHING A STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE 

#Bitcoin #Crypto #ExecutiveOrder #Trump #USEconomy #CryptoNews https://t.co/uagRvS8lyf

Bitcoin declared “dead” again says more about sentiment than fundamentals ↓
 @natbrunell 

➤ Regulatory clarity
➤ Institutional adoption
➤ Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 
➤ CFTC recognizing Bitcoin as collateral
➤ Harvard's #1 position = Bitcoin ETF
➤ $IBIT = BlackRock's #1 ETF https://t.co/Bz4D6ChfYK

- 2025 is the Year of Gold. In 2026, Bitcoin's policy will be fully implemented. 
 
- The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act is expected to be enacted.
 
- Many funds in the EU and Asia will implement trial initiatives. 
 
- BRICS+ moves from debate to execution.

🚨🇺🇸 BREAKING: President Trump signs an Executive Order creating a Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve
💥 This just changed EVERYTHING
👀 Crypto world on notice https://t.co/AL1pFor8JX

Year in Review: In March, the U.S. announced plans for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, the first time a major nation officially treated BTC as a strategic asset.
Markets initially pumped on the headline, then dipped once traders realised it was a slow policy framework.

$BTC https://t.co/mElEeGynzy

Yes, President Trump did sign an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, but it happened in March 2025 (specifically on March 6, 2025), not recently around December 20, 2025.

### Key Details:
- The executive order created the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, treating https://t.co/c03biB0ucv

Texas makes history as the first U.S. state to activate a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with a $5M deployment. Is this the start of a 30-state wave? 🤠💻 #Bitcoin #Texas #SBR #DigitalGold   https://t.co/QW7fPMF0i1

🚨 NEW STRATEGIC BITCOIN RESERVE BILL INTRODUCED IN CONGRESS.

A new bill has been introduced in the U.S. Congress that could reshape the relationship between Bitcoin and the federal government.

If passed, the bill would allow taxes to be paid in Bitcoin, giving BTC a direct https://t.co/HbS7u7NTMK

Cynthia Lummis not running again is bigger than people think.

She wasn’t just “pro-crypto”, she was the architect:

• Market structure
• Stablecoin framework
• Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
• Pushing back on regulation-by-enforcement

Her exit puts a hard clock on US crypto law. https://t.co/wFctHZa754

⚠️ State is buying Bitcoin, strategic win or stealth capture?

Trump created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile for BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA, XRP.

Power shifts: custody, legitimacy and market tailwinds move toward Washington and big custodians.

🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER ESTABLISHING A STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE

   THIS CHANGED EVERYTHING https://t.co/5DRiJ3PuiI

Bitcoin has historically outperformed traditional treasury assets over the past decade. Fixed supply of 21 million. Politically neutral and liquid 24/7. Bitcoin is the world’s emerging sovereign-grade reserve asset.

Establish your national strategy with BitGo’s regulated, https://t.co/eeUoJq8jTN

Bitcoin is inevitable and key property to make memes fun is truth

As US government is about to implement strategic Bitcoin reserve 

So Elon must soon give public support to Bitcoin

Elon could have done this years ago — but choose not too

Keep that in mind in near future🤣🤣🤣 https://t.co/UdcFeNJhRz https://t.co/eZm23qL4K0

👉📰🇱🇷 PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNING AN EXECUTIVE ORDER ESTABLISHING A STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE. https://t.co/PO74xinEil

This PA feels deceptive.
It looks like a liquidation wick is close.

The market is extremely quiet  reminds me of that weekend when, out of nowhere, Trump announced the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and price suddenly exploded from ~85K to 96K.

This kind of silence usually comes https://t.co/i7OIeLDUlh

■米国の暗号資産関連の法案の流れを　BTC占星術でまとめてみた　Grok

2025年3月：Trump政権がExecutive OrderでStrategic Bitcoin Reserve（戦略的ビットコイン備蓄）を設立。政府が押収したBTCを売らずにreserveとして保持する仕組みがスタート。これ、すでに「国家レベルのクジラ」誕生。

🇺🇸 PRESIDENT TRUMP SIGNS AN EXECUTIVE ORDER TO CREATE A STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE

THIS IS A BIG SHIFT FOR BITCOIN AND THE U.S.

HISTORIC MOVE OR JUST POLITICS?
WHAT’S YOUR TAKE 👇 https://t.co/NpzhPIcNHy

Let’s get this straight.

These are not the same thing.

• Trump’s executive order
→ Uses seized/confiscated BTC
→ Executive action
→ Already in motion

• Senate Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill
→ Sets a reserve framework
→ No tax changes
→ Still a proposal

• House bill https://t.co/awt9CJ1MQH

BIG WEEK FOR BITCOIN 🚨

• Saylor smash buys $2.5B Bitcoin
• White House Bitcoin and crypto bill, including Bitcoin strategic reserve
• Fed rate cut decision

Billions in Bitcoin demand incoming. 🚀 https://t.co/svQBgIqR9j

🚀 BULLISH SIGNAL

US Government establishes strategic Bitcoin reserve under President Trump's executive order

💎 $BTC
@Bitcoin #AR #GN #BTC #Macro

What's your play? 🎯

📖 https://t.co/CJM7uZeJPY

🚨🇺🇸 Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a top U.S. crypto supporter, says she won’t run for reelection again.

This adds uncertainty to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and market structure bill. 👀 https://t.co/RX9ZcXl8se

A NEW STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE BILL GOT INTRODUCED IN CONGRESS

BILL WILL ALLOW TAXES TO BE PAID IN BITCOIN AND NO CAPITAL GAINS TAX

THIS IS MASSIVE!!
https://t.co/SMxWvjnLFm

Bitcoin to $143,000?! 🚀 + Major Senate SHOCK ⚠️

BTC to $143k? 🚀
Citigroup thinks so. But we just lost our biggest ally in the Senate. 🇺🇸
Senator Lummis is retiring in 2027.
What does this mean for:

The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve?
Future Regulations?
Your Bags?
We break it all

🇺🇸 A NEW STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE BILL GOT INTRODUCED IN CONGRESS  BILL WILL ALLOW TAXES TO BE PAID IN BITCOIN AND NO CAPITAL GAINS TAX  THIS IS MASSIVE!! https://t.co/PPl1spnL71

Sen. Cynthia Lummis announced Dec 19 she won't seek re election in 2026. 🚨

She chairs the Senate's first crypto subcommittee, sponsored the GENIUS Act (stablecoins pegged to USD) and introduced the Bitcoin Act ($100B gov't strategic reserve).

Now leading the Market Structure https://t.co/oeUL1sJ5ET

White House confirms first Bitcoin and crypto report will release on Wednesday 

Bitcoin strategic reserve is on the way 🚀 https://t.co/4WtBI6T6nf

Lummis bows out '27, crypto's loudest Senate warrior hangs up the gloves. Strategic reserve bill in limbo? Politicians come and go; Bitcoin stays forever. One woman fought the system, you fight by stacking sats. No senators needed when you're sovereign.

President Trump has signed an executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, marking a significant policy shift by utilizing seized cryptocurrencies as national assets. This move, alongside proposed bills in Congress for tax payments in Bitcoin and institutional adoption, signals strong governmental and financial support for digital currencies.

$BTC IS JUST GETTING STARTED ; THE INTERNET WAS HERE IN 1999

Bitcoin is at ~4.7% global adoption about where the internet was in 1999.

The adoption curve looks strikingly similar to the internet’s early days, before it became a global standard.

With ETF floodgates opening, https://t.co/oGX6dDGqBn https://t.co/Bf1IRgBlYa

Even though Trump signed an order to create a strategic #Bitcoin reserve, the market will likely panic if there’s no clear proof of how many #BTC are officially held by the government as reserves, not just confiscated coins 💥. Polymarket rules say without direct US government https://t.co/9PySjIVGem

🚨PRO-BITCOIN SENATOR ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT 📷Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a top U.S. crypto supporter, says she won’t run again for reelection.  This adds uncertainty to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and market structure bill. https://t.co/BQV1cNPpD5

🇺🇸 A NEW STRATEGIC #BITCOIN RESERVE BILL 
GOT INTRODUCED IN CONGRESS  BILL WILL ALLOW TAXES TO BE PAID IN BITCOIN AND NO CAPITAL GAINS TAX  THIS IS MASSIVE!! https://t.co/o7oWFFClfU

NEWS RECAP

• Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD reached a $1 billion market cap one year after its launch.
Source: https://t.co/kcw6D35yiH

• Senator Cynthia Lummis announced she will not seek reelection, impacting U.S. crypto policy efforts like the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
Source:

Despite the fact that Trump issued an executive order to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, the market will react negatively if there is no confirmation of how many bitcoins are officially held on the government's balance sheet as reserves, rather than simply confiscated or https://t.co/h54a2NIZ0e

Crypto TL DR 2025: The Year of the God Candle

Jan - Feb: Trump is inaugurated, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve narrative officially becomes a topic of discussion. The AI ​​Agent token (ai16z/VIRTUAL) moonsaults first.​

Mar - Apr: BTC begins price discovery. Solana officially

US national XRP reserve in 2025?
Join now at https://t.co/BpymtUBofS
Tags: #crypto #prediction #market https://t.co/mbYUxlWlIG

No significant social media activity or specific events were reported that could explain the market price movement. Further investigation into other news sources or economic indicators may be necessary to understand the underlying causes.

Due to the absence of specific tweets or data provided for analysis, no detailed summary of social media activity or related market events can be generated. Please provide relevant tweets or information to enable a comprehensive analysis of the situation.

President Trump has signed an executive order to establish a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, marking a significant shift in national policy by treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This move, alongside new bills and regulatory clarity, positions cryptocurrencies for mainstream financial integration.

Bitcoin Reserve Established

🇺🇸 CFTC ANNOUNCED A NEW US GOVERNMENT BACKED #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO TRADING PLATFORM 

WE ARE GOING MAINSTREAM 🚀 https://t.co/MeAq70VdiV

🇺🇸 U.S. congressman introduces new Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve bill and says there will be no capital gains on Bitcoin https://t.co/YvpK1EsUkv

“We will mirror the FED” #BTC #ETH #SOL #XRP #ADA

CEO of Reserve One says they will allocate across the same crypto assets as the US Digital Asset Stockpile.

Regulatory Clarity coming in 2026 https://t.co/Axw0YBFhMX

Good night CT 🌙

Trump delivered on crypto in 2025 🔥🇺🇸

Executive order to boost innovation 🚀  
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (seized BTC + stockpiles for ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA) ₿📈  
GENIUS Act for stablecoins 💵  
Regulatory relief at the SEC ⚖️

Trump family deep in: World https://t.co/V21xSm7X9R

📅Top Bitcoin Stories of 2025

1. End of Halving cycle
2. Strategy tops 3% of all bitcoin 670,000 BTC
3. Explosion of BTC Treasury companies
4. U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve created
5. GENIUS Act signed into law
6. Operation Chokepoint 2.0 dies
7. Dormant OG bitcoin whales wake

You don’t have to be smart to pivot some of your wealth into Bitcoin in 2025.

C Suite of Wall Street is in.
C Suite of US government is in.
C Suite of Governments worldwide are in.

You just have to not be stupid now.

And still…

#Bitcoin #Crypto

🔥 Spot on, Axel – BTC's just one bold central bank move from going nuclear.

With the US already launching its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve holding 200k+ BTC (per recent exec order), and Deutsche Bank predicting CBs could add BTC to reserves by 2030 as volatility https://t.co/s71TPUQeAs

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸

President Trump signs an Executive Order to establish a Strategic #Bitcoin Reserve 🏦₿

This is a game-changer for crypto adoption and national policy.
Bitcoin just took a seat at the sovereign table.
Everything changed today. 🚀🔥

#BTC #BITCOIN https://t.co/BUFWSwM0Bv

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year https://t.co/yZzFwLLqKP

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year https://t.co/EHX75aLs5n

🔸 U.S. congressman has introduced a new Strategic Bitcoin $BTC Reserve bill — saying it would eliminate capital gains taxes on Bitcoin. https://t.co/LULXcxvcV5 https://t.co/5FyvO5X26n

🚨BREAKING: 
President Trump signs an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 🇺🇸

This is huge.
Bitcoin just went from “alternative asset” to national strategy.
The game just changed — institutions, nations, and history are watching. 🚀₿
#BITCOIN #CryptoNews https://t.co/QtfthggeWF

Bitcoin’s +20,670% return over the last decade was just price discovery.

The next decade is when crypto becomes financial infrastructure.

• Spot ETFs live (BlackRock, Fidelity, others)

• U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

• Banks offering custody, trading, OTC &amp; derivatives https://t.co/FRQtk82Ntj

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150000 Next Year: https://t.co/nd6C8AaKpS

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year

https://t.co/5WGGUR3VqF

US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year https://t.co/g8yBexgBrb

Michael Saylor's view on the future of Bitcoin:

- Banks will start lending against your BTC
- The US government will hold BTC
- Big tech companies will embrace BTC
- You will have Bitcoin on your iPhone https://t.co/rDnVIbSaNC

😆 Here are the 10 figures who made us crypto folks experience massive ups and downs  in 2025:
1️⃣ Donald Trump – Tokenizing political power: Launched the meme coin TRUMP, signed a series of crypto-friendly executive orders, established the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, legalized https://t.co/6xulVfJ5ZJ

🇺🇸 President Trump signing an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is a major shift.
This moves BTC from a speculative asset toward a strategic one at the state level.
Big implications ahead.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoRegulation 
#日本レコード大賞 #โดมปกรณ์ลัม https://t.co/BBT9BKiF9x

Bitcoin 2025 was either a huge disappointment or a banger of a year depending on how you look at it

Through a fiat lens:

Price down 7%-ish (after hitting $126K+ peak)
U.S. Strategic Reserve was a dud
The 4-year cycle is dead
Was @PeterSchiff right? 😱

Through a protocol

🇺🇸 President Trump signs an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

This is a major shift in how the US views #Bitcoin — from speculation to strategic asset.

If confirmed and implemented, this could change long-term demand dynamics for $BTC.

Big moment. Let’s https://t.co/nx3FfDPJ4g

🚨 INSIGHTS 🚨:  Here are some #Bitcoin insights from 2025 for those who like data:

&gt; The "Bitcoin is dead" coverage basically disappeared this year. First time that's happened.

&gt; The Strategic Reserve narrative is still building. Data suggests another 2-3 months before it https://t.co/LHT6WCI5NN

The U.S. Government simply stopped selling the BTC it confiscated from dark web markets and called it a strategic reserve  https://t.co/r60sgGpr1v

Trump reportedly signed an EO for a strategic #BTC reserve? If verified, this is geopolitical alpha. 

But until it's on a .gov site, treat it as narrative fuel.
Markets haven't priced this in yet. 

Anyone found the official doc? 👀

#Bitcoin #CryptoNews https://t.co/qc8yFFjn9P

There are no tweets or social media activity to summarize at this time. Please provide relevant data for analysis when available.

No Activity Reported

There are no tweets provided for analysis at this time. Without specific content to summarize, no key events or sentiments can be reported.

No significant events or updates are available at this time due to the absence of relevant social media content. Further monitoring is required to identify any emerging trends or impactful news.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

美國國家比特幣儲備在2027年之前？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

到2026年12月31日，會有新的國家購買比特幣嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2026年聯邦利率會上調嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy 會在 2026 年 12 月 31 日前賣出任何比特幣嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

美國政府將於1月31日資金中斷？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. 


到2026年12月31日，薩爾瓦多會持有超過10億美元的比特幣嗎？

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

USDT市值會在2027年之前達到2,000億美元嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普會在2026年12月31日前辭職嗎？

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high
- US national Bitcoin reserve

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_Crypto.pdf

什麼都沒發生過：加密貨幣篇

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.

If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

比特幣會在2026年表現優於黃金嗎？

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

到2026年12月31日，USDC市值會達到USDT市值的50%嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

特朗普會在2027年前取消加密貨幣的資本利得稅嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any single daily BTC/USDT candle between January 13 and December 31, 2026 has a range equal to or greater than 15%. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT

The “Range” value shown for the daily candle will be used. Daily candles are defined based on the ET (Eastern Time) timezone.

Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.

Bitcoin 15%+ daily candle in 2026?

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 (see https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 5% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,751,467,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).


馬斯克會在2025年削減至少5%的預算嗎？

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

比特幣會在2027年前更換SHA-256嗎？

In Q4 2024, government expenditures were $7,106,807,000,000 see (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND). 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if federal government current expenditures decrease by 10% or more between the Q4 2024 report and the Q4 2025 report. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

Any 2025 quarterly report of $6,396,126,000,000 or less will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

Revisions made to these figures will not be considered, only the values reported in the initial reports will be used.

This market's resolution source is the Federal Government: Current Expenditures chart maintained by the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, displayed here (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGEXPND).

Elon 會在 2025 年將預算削減至少 10% 嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Revolut launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Revolut, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Revolut會在2026年推出美元穩定幣嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

2026年期中選舉會如期舉行嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

傑羅姆·鮑威爾在6月30日前被聯邦起訴？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

2026年最高法院出現空缺？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.

Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

美國會在2026年併吞任何領土嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

美國會在2027年前確認外星人存在嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Venezuela is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state between January 3, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Venezuelan land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

委內瑞拉會成為第51個州嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

美國會在2026年12月31日之前入侵委內瑞拉嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


鮑威爾在2027年前會坐牢嗎？

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for BTC.D between Sept 5, 2025, 15:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value of 70.00% or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the BTC.D "High" percentage currently available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the percentage according to TradingView BTC.D, not according to other sources or spot markets.

比特幣主導率會在2027年前達到70%嗎？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:

1.  The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 

2.  The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.

The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

2026年底前美國會陷入經濟衰退嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X launches a stablecoin pegged to the US Dollar by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The stablecoin must be actively transferrable and/or tradable, announcements alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from X, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

X 會在 2026 年推出美元穩定幣嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the US House and Senate pass the same government funding bill between market creation and the listed date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," the bill must actually pass both chambers of Congress (the US House and the US Senate). Passage of separate or different bills will not qualify; it must be the same piece of legislation.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by January 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USD-denominated stablecoin supply falls below 99% of total stablecoin supply at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is Artemis (https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins), using the “Stablecoin Supply by Currency” chart. The USD percentage shown when hovering over a monthly data point will be used.

A monthly data point will be considered finalized once the following month’s data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

2026年美元計價穩定幣的市場份額會跌破99%嗎？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

市場背景

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

規則

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

市場背景

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?

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