This market will resolve if the value of the "[US] Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties" for Q4 2025 is higher than Q3 2025, as defined and reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via the following source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/B235RC1Q027SBEA

Only initial releases of each quarterly value will be used for resolution. Revisions made after the initial Q4 2025 release will not be counted.

If all relevant data is not published by March 31, 2026 ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution is based exclusively on the data shown in the chart linked above.