Name: #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?
Start: 2025-10-10T16:48:43.72878Z
End: 2025-10-17T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of October 17, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Google Gemini

ChatGPT

Sora by OpenAI

Tea Dating Advice

Threads

Google

McDonald’s

第一免费应用

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of October 10, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of October 24, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 12?

-arch#1 免费应用，12月26日美国苹果应用商店排名第一？

12月26日美国苹果应用商店第一免费应用？

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?

2023年1月2日美国苹果应用商店第一免费应用

1月9日美国苹果应用商店排名第一的免费应用

2023年1月16日美国Apple App Store免费应用排行榜第一名？

1月23日美国苹果App Store第一免费应用

This market will resolve according to the number 1 artist on the Billboard 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart.

If Billboard does not publish a 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Billboard Year-End 2026 Top Artists Chart, once it becomes available.

泰勒·斯威夫特会在2026年成为公告牌榜单第一的顶尖艺人吗？

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

玛丽亚·凯莉会在2026年登上Billboard Hot 100榜首吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

苹果会在2026年发布iPhone 18吗？

This market will resolve according to the number of albums that are ranked number 1 on any official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026.

Each specific album may only count once, regardless of the number times it reaches the number 1 spot. Different editions of the same album will be considered to be different specific albums if they contain different tracklists.

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

All officially published Billboard 200 Albums charts will be treated as final. Revisions made after the release of a Billboard 200 album chart will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart, published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/ and through other official Billboard channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting on albums that reached number 1 on the Billboard 200 within this market's timeframe may also be used.

2026年会有19到21张专辑在公告牌200强中排名第一吗？

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026.

If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. 

Bad Bunny会成为2026年Spotify的头号艺术家吗？

As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on January 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. 
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


苹果公司（AAPL）会超过季度收益预期吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of the AirTag 2 launches at $29.99 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the AirTag 2 as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail pricing in the United States on the first official day of its release.

If the price differs between configurations, this market will resolve according to the lower price of the version that includes the full standard AirTag 2 model with no additional features, accessories, or services.

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

If the AirTag 2 is not released by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Apple Store (online or retail pricing), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

苹果AirTags 2发布时定价低于30美元吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

苹果会在2027年前推出可折叠iPhone吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

苹果会在3月31日之前发布新款Apple TV吗？

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

约翰·特努斯会成为苹果公司的下一任首席执行官吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

苹果会在6月30日前发布AirTag 2吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

苹果会在2027年前发布新的产品线吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

苹果会在6月30日前发布支持蜂窝网络连接的MacBook吗？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

xAI会在6月30日前拥有全球第一的AI模型吗？

This market will resolve according to the fighter that is ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If, for any reason, there is no fighter ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at this market’s check-time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

到了2026年底，伊斯兰·马哈切夫会不会在UFC P4P排名中位居第一？

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Google Gemini
$3,153 交易量
No

ChatGPT
$15,401 交易量
No

Sora by OpenAI
$38,299 交易量
Yes

Tea Dating Advice
$686 交易量
No

Threads
$1,139 交易量
No

Google
$1,880 交易量
No

McDonald’s
$1,648 交易量
No

市场背景

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

规则

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

市场背景

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

关于

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Google Gemini$3,153 交易量No

ChatGPT$15,401 交易量No

Sora by OpenAI$38,299 交易量Yes

Tea Dating Advice$686 交易量No

Threads$1,139 交易量No

Google$1,880 交易量No

McDonald’s$1,648 交易量No

市场背景

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

规则

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

市场背景

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

关于

Google Gemini
$3,153 交易量
No

ChatGPT
$15,401 交易量
No

Sora by OpenAI
$38,299 交易量
Yes

Tea Dating Advice
$686 交易量
No

Threads
$1,139 交易量
No

Google
$1,880 交易量
No

McDonald’s
$1,648 交易量
No