The market's 98% implied probability for "No" reflects traders' assessment that no verifiable signs, prophetic fulfillments, or cultural shifts point to an imminent return by the end of 2026. Real-money consensus treats the timeline as incompatible with historical patterns of eschatological predictions that have consistently missed deadlines, absent any sudden, widely accepted catalyst like a global revelation or unprecedented event. While the subjective nature of religious interpretation leaves room for last-minute reinterpretations of current events, the overwhelming barrier remains the lack of concrete momentum or precedent that would move the needle in such a compressed window.