Traders assign a 98.3% implied probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit through bipartisan legislation, extraordinary measures by the Treasury, and continuing resolutions that avert immediate crisis. Recent appropriations cycles and fiscal negotiations have followed this pattern, with both parties facing strong incentives to prevent payment disruptions that would raise borrowing costs and trigger market volatility. Historical precedent shows the limit has been adjusted dozens of times without default. Still, scenarios such as prolonged congressional deadlock after the 2026 midterms, an unexpected fiscal shock, or failure to enact timely legislation before statutory deadlines could shift odds, though such outcomes remain low-probability given institutional safeguards and past resolutions.