Traders assign a 98.3% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026 because the debt limit, raised by $5 trillion in July 2025, is projected to bind no earlier than February 2027 under current borrowing patterns. Congress maintains a consistent record of addressing statutory limits through continuing resolutions, appropriations bills, or standalone increases ahead of any Treasury payment shortfall. Recent discussions among lawmakers about handling the issue in the current lame-duck session further reinforce expectations of timely action. While the market reflects this consensus on procedural precedent and timeline, an unforeseen fiscal crisis or total breakdown in negotiations could still introduce limited risk before year-end.