The US has never defaulted on its debt obligations, and institutional mechanisms such as debt-ceiling increases, continuing resolutions, and Treasury extraordinary measures have consistently prevented it during past negotiations. Traders assign a 96% probability to no default by 2027 because both parties face strong incentives to avoid the severe economic disruption, higher borrowing costs, and market volatility that would follow a breach, with multiple fiscal deadlines expected before then. Historical patterns show Congress resolving these standoffs even amid partisan divisions, and no structural changes have altered that baseline. While scenarios like prolonged government shutdowns or extreme legislative gridlock could test the process, the market consensus reflects repeated precedent and the high political costs of allowing default.