Incumbent U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee holds a commanding trader consensus at 89% implied probability to win Texas' 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his narrow 46%-44% primary edge over fellow incumbent Al Green on March 3 amid redistricting that shifted Green's base into the district. February polls from the University of Houston Hobby School and Lake Research Partners showed Menefee leading by 20-24 points, reinforced by first-quarter fundraising where he outraised Green two-to-one, amassing over $3 million. Menefee's special election victory in January and progressive appeal in the safely Democratic district explain Green's drop to 9%, with others eliminated after weak primary showings. High turnout favoring Green's longtime supporters or late endorsements could narrow the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner
Christian Menefee 89.1%
Al Green 9.3%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$25,076 KL.
$25,076 KL.
Christian Menefee
89%
Al Green
9%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Christian Menefee 89.1%
Al Green 9.3%
Amanda Edwards <1%
Gretchen Brown <1%
$25,076 KL.
$25,076 KL.
Christian Menefee
89%
Al Green
9%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent U.S. Rep. Christian Menefee holds a commanding trader consensus at 89% implied probability to win Texas' 18th Congressional District Democratic primary runoff on May 26, driven by his narrow 46%-44% primary edge over fellow incumbent Al Green on March 3 amid redistricting that shifted Green's base into the district. February polls from the University of Houston Hobby School and Lake Research Partners showed Menefee leading by 20-24 points, reinforced by first-quarter fundraising where he outraised Green two-to-one, amassing over $3 million. Menefee's special election victory in January and progressive appeal in the safely Democratic district explain Green's drop to 9%, with others eliminated after weak primary showings. High turnout favoring Green's longtime supporters or late endorsements could narrow the gap.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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