Christian Menefee holds a commanding position in the Democratic primary runoff for Texas’s 18th Congressional District after redistricting merged portions of the longtime 9th District into the 18th, pitting the freshman representative against longtime incumbent Al Green. Recent University of Houston polling shows Menefee ahead by seven points among likely voters, consistent with his stronger first-quarter fundraising and name recognition gained from a January special-election victory. Traders reflect this advantage through the implied probability reflected in current pricing. A decisive Green performance on May 26 could still occur if turnout surges among older voters in the district’s historic core or if late developments alter momentum before the runoff concludes.