Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty for the S&P 500's year-end 2026 close, with a 31.5% implied probability for below $6,000 edging out 23.0% for $7,000–$7,500 amid recent hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—signaling reaccelerating inflation and dimming prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 3.5%–3.75% fed funds range. The index trades near 7,126 following last week's record highs, buoyed by Q1 earnings previews projecting 17% growth, yet Middle East tensions and steady Fed policy path temper upside, pitting recession risks against resilient corporate fundamentals. Key swing factors include April CPI on May 12 and ongoing FOMC communications, with Wall Street targets clustering around 7,200–7,600.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 13%
$7,500-$8,000 13%
$19,269 KL.
$19,269 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
18%
$6,500-$7,000
13%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
13%
>$8,000
12%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 13%
$7,500-$8,000 13%
$19,269 KL.
$19,269 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,578 KL.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 KL.
18%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,969 KL.
13%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 KL.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 KL.
13%
>$8,000
$1,794 KL.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty for the S&P 500's year-end 2026 close, with a 31.5% implied probability for below $6,000 edging out 23.0% for $7,000–$7,500 amid recent hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—signaling reaccelerating inflation and dimming prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 3.5%–3.75% fed funds range. The index trades near 7,126 following last week's record highs, buoyed by Q1 earnings previews projecting 17% growth, yet Middle East tensions and steady Fed policy path temper upside, pitting recession risks against resilient corporate fundamentals. Key swing factors include April CPI on May 12 and ongoing FOMC communications, with Wall Street targets clustering around 7,200–7,600.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$19,269Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty for the S&P 500's year-end 2026 close, with a 31.5% implied probability for below $6,000 edging out 23.0% for $7,000–$7,500 amid recent hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—signaling reaccelerating inflation and dimming prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 3.5%–3.75% fed funds range. The index trades near 7,126 following last week's record highs, buoyed by Q1 earnings previews projecting 17% growth, yet Middle East tensions and steady Fed policy path temper upside, pitting recession risks against resilient corporate fundamentals. Key swing factors include April CPI on May 12 and ongoing FOMC communications, with Wall Street targets clustering around 7,200–7,600.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Khối lượng
$19,269Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects heightened uncertainty for the S&P 500's year-end 2026 close, with a 31.5% implied probability for below $6,000 edging out 23.0% for $7,000–$7,500 amid recent hotter-than-expected March 2026 CPI at 3.3% year-over-year—up from 2.4% in February—signaling reaccelerating inflation and dimming prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts from the current 3.5%–3.75% fed funds range. The index trades near 7,126 following last week's record highs, buoyed by Q1 earnings previews projecting 17% growth, yet Middle East tensions and steady Fed policy path temper upside, pitting recession risks against resilient corporate fundamentals. Key swing factors include April CPI on May 12 and ongoing FOMC communications, with Wall Street targets clustering around 7,200–7,600.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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