Recent momentum in SPCX shares, driven by the major lockup expiration releasing over 900 million shares and an Argus Research upgrade to Buy, has positioned the >$130 close for the week of August 3 as the dominant market-implied outcome at 86% probability. The stock hit a 52-week low near $104.83 on August 3 amid post-IPO selling pressure and elevated AI-related capex in Q2 earnings, but rebounded sharply to close August 6 near $114.92 before extending gains above $130 intraday. Traders appear to view the lockup overhang relief and institutional buying as outweighing valuation compression risks, though the range of lower-probability buckets reflects ongoing uncertainty around execution on Starlink and Starship amid broader market volatility.