The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.35–1.39ºC 45%
1.40–1.44ºC 39%
<1.30ºC 26%
1.30–1.34ºC 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
26%
1.30–1.34ºC
13%
1.35–1.39ºC
45%
1.40–1.44ºC
39%
1.45–1.49ºC
9%
>1.49ºC
7%
1.35–1.39ºC 45%
1.40–1.44ºC 39%
<1.30ºC 26%
1.30–1.34ºC 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$69 KL.
26%
1.30–1.34ºC
$1,343 KL.
13%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 KL.
45%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 KL.
39%
1.45–1.49ºC
$124 KL.
9%
>1.49ºC
$263 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Khối lượng
$1,799Ngày kết thúc
Oct 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$1,799Ngày kết thúc
Oct 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The rapidly strengthening El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.8°C in September 2026 and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +3.5–4.0°C later in the year, stands as the dominant driver behind the close trader consensus favoring 1.35–1.39°C or 1.40–1.44°C anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF shows this event already elevating global temperatures, with September tracking as one of the warmest on record amid record ocean heat content and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions. Model spreads and the typical lag between Pacific warming and peak global response introduce realistic uncertainty that keeps the two leading bins nearly even, while lower-probability outcomes below 1.30°C would require an unusually rapid fade inconsistent with current observations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp