Trader consensus prices a low 13.5% chance of NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory amid contained geopolitical tensions. The most recent near-miss—an Iranian missile entering Turkish airspace on March 4, 2026—drew swift allied support but no collective defense trigger, as affirmed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Russia-Ukraine hostilities remain confined outside NATO borders, with Baltic reinforcements and diplomatic channels deterring spillover despite warnings of potential probing incursions. French President Macron's late April critique of U.S. commitment doubts under President Trump highlights alliance strains, yet no escalatory military actions have emerged in the past 30 days to shift this trader assessment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNATO article 5 before 2027?
NATO article 5 before 2027?
$60,126 KL.
$60,126 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$60,126 KL.
$60,126 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices a low 13.5% chance of NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory amid contained geopolitical tensions. The most recent near-miss—an Iranian missile entering Turkish airspace on March 4, 2026—drew swift allied support but no collective defense trigger, as affirmed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Russia-Ukraine hostilities remain confined outside NATO borders, with Baltic reinforcements and diplomatic channels deterring spillover despite warnings of potential probing incursions. French President Macron's late April critique of U.S. commitment doubts under President Trump highlights alliance strains, yet no escalatory military actions have emerged in the past 30 days to shift this trader assessment.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$60,126Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices a low 13.5% chance of NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory amid contained geopolitical tensions. The most recent near-miss—an Iranian missile entering Turkish airspace on March 4, 2026—drew swift allied support but no collective defense trigger, as affirmed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Russia-Ukraine hostilities remain confined outside NATO borders, with Baltic reinforcements and diplomatic channels deterring spillover despite warnings of potential probing incursions. French President Macron's late April critique of U.S. commitment doubts under President Trump highlights alliance strains, yet no escalatory military actions have emerged in the past 30 days to shift this trader assessment.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Khối lượng
$60,126Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a low 13.5% chance of NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory amid contained geopolitical tensions. The most recent near-miss—an Iranian missile entering Turkish airspace on March 4, 2026—drew swift allied support but no collective defense trigger, as affirmed by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Russia-Ukraine hostilities remain confined outside NATO borders, with Baltic reinforcements and diplomatic channels deterring spillover despite warnings of potential probing incursions. French President Macron's late April critique of U.S. commitment doubts under President Trump highlights alliance strains, yet no escalatory military actions have emerged in the past 30 days to shift this trader assessment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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