Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 78.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any M8+ events so far this year. Recent USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns, highlighted by a M7.4 quake near Indonesia on April 1 but no foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or the Aleutians. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains unreliable, with probabilities driven by baseline rates rather than precursors; continuous real-time USGS data and model updates could shift odds as the deadline nears.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$51,366 KL.
$51,366 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$51,366 KL.
$51,366 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 78.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any M8+ events so far this year. Recent USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns, highlighted by a M7.4 quake near Indonesia on April 1 but no foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or the Aleutians. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains unreliable, with probabilities driven by baseline rates rather than precursors; continuous real-time USGS data and model updates could shift odds as the deadline nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,366Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 78.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any M8+ events so far this year. Recent USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns, highlighted by a M7.4 quake near Indonesia on April 1 but no foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or the Aleutians. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains unreliable, with probabilities driven by baseline rates rather than precursors; continuous real-time USGS data and model updates could shift odds as the deadline nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$51,373Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 78.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake worldwide by June 30, 2026, reflecting the rarity of such great earthquakes—occurring roughly once per year globally per USGS historical data—and the absence of any M8+ events so far this year. Recent USGS monitoring shows normal seismic patterns, highlighted by a M7.4 quake near Indonesia on April 1 but no foreshocks or unusual strain accumulation on high-risk subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, or the Aleutians. Short-term earthquake forecasting remains unreliable, with probabilities driven by baseline rates rather than precursors; continuous real-time USGS data and model updates could shift odds as the deadline nears.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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