Recent La Niña conditions, following the strong 2024–2025 El Niño, have moderated global surface temperatures, with Copernicus and NOAA data for early 2026 months showing anomalies clustered near 1.1–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This pattern, combined with model consensus on continued neutral-to-cool ENSO influence through spring, underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for a May 2026 anomaly in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Official monthly releases from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA in the coming weeks represent the key upcoming data points that could shift positioning if observed values deviate from current forecasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 KL.
$192,174 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 KL.
$192,174 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,006 KL.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,254 KL.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,111 KL.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,001 KL.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,400 KL.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,403 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent La Niña conditions, following the strong 2024–2025 El Niño, have moderated global surface temperatures, with Copernicus and NOAA data for early 2026 months showing anomalies clustered near 1.1–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This pattern, combined with model consensus on continued neutral-to-cool ENSO influence through spring, underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for a May 2026 anomaly in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Official monthly releases from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA in the coming weeks represent the key upcoming data points that could shift positioning if observed values deviate from current forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$192,174Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent La Niña conditions, following the strong 2024–2025 El Niño, have moderated global surface temperatures, with Copernicus and NOAA data for early 2026 months showing anomalies clustered near 1.1–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This pattern, combined with model consensus on continued neutral-to-cool ENSO influence through spring, underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for a May 2026 anomaly in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Official monthly releases from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA in the coming weeks represent the key upcoming data points that could shift positioning if observed values deviate from current forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$192,174Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent La Niña conditions, following the strong 2024–2025 El Niño, have moderated global surface temperatures, with Copernicus and NOAA data for early 2026 months showing anomalies clustered near 1.1–1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. This pattern, combined with model consensus on continued neutral-to-cool ENSO influence through spring, underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for a May 2026 anomaly in the 1.10–1.14 °C range. Official monthly releases from Copernicus Climate Change Service and NOAA in the coming weeks represent the key upcoming data points that could shift positioning if observed values deviate from current forecasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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