Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 remaining elevated due to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, yet moderated by developing La Niña conditions that suppress anomalies relative to the 2023–2025 peaks. This combination, along with historical May climatology and model consensus projecting anomalies near 1.1°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around 1.10–1.14°C. Realistic challenges include a rapid shift back toward El Niño or revisions in final ERA5 processing, though current forecasts indicate low probability of deviation outside this narrow band before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 96.5%
<1.10ºC 1.9%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,439 KL.
$192,439 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 96.5%
<1.10ºC 1.9%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,439 KL.
$192,439 KL.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,041 KL.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,383 KL.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,136 KL.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,026 KL.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,425 KL.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,428 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 remaining elevated due to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, yet moderated by developing La Niña conditions that suppress anomalies relative to the 2023–2025 peaks. This combination, along with historical May climatology and model consensus projecting anomalies near 1.1°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around 1.10–1.14°C. Realistic challenges include a rapid shift back toward El Niño or revisions in final ERA5 processing, though current forecasts indicate low probability of deviation outside this narrow band before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$192,439Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 remaining elevated due to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, yet moderated by developing La Niña conditions that suppress anomalies relative to the 2023–2025 peaks. This combination, along with historical May climatology and model consensus projecting anomalies near 1.1°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around 1.10–1.14°C. Realistic challenges include a rapid shift back toward El Niño or revisions in final ERA5 processing, though current forecasts indicate low probability of deviation outside this narrow band before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$192,439Ngày kết thúc
Jun 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA show global temperatures in early 2026 remaining elevated due to the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, yet moderated by developing La Niña conditions that suppress anomalies relative to the 2023–2025 peaks. This combination, along with historical May climatology and model consensus projecting anomalies near 1.1°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, underpins the overwhelming trader consensus around 1.10–1.14°C. Realistic challenges include a rapid shift back toward El Niño or revisions in final ERA5 processing, though current forecasts indicate low probability of deviation outside this narrow band before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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