Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8%, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official release on April 10 showing a 3.3% year-over-year rise—the sharpest since May 2024 and up from February's 2.4%. This surge stems from a 0.9% monthly jump, driven primarily by energy costs soaring 10.9% month-over-month, with gasoline spiking 21.2% amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, overshadowing softer core CPI at 2.6% YoY. While revisions to preliminary data in future BLS updates pose the only realistic challenge to this near-certainty, the skin-in-the-game pricing underscores unassailable resolution positioning ahead of the May 12 April CPI report and FOMC rate path reassessment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật≥2.8% 100.0%
≤2.0% <1%
2.1% <1%
2.2% <1%
$3,344,780 KL.
$3,344,780 KL.
Apr 10, 2026
≤2.0%
No
2.1%
No
2.2%
No
2.3%
No
2.4%
No
2.5%
No
2.6%
No
2.7%
No
≥2.8%
Yes
≥2.8% 100.0%
≤2.0% <1%
2.1% <1%
2.2% <1%
$3,344,780 KL.
$3,344,780 KL.
Apr 10, 2026
≤2.0%
$213,922 KL.
No
2.1%
$103,332 KL.
No
2.2%
$107,932 KL.
No
2.3%
$239,086 KL.
No
2.4%
$208,605 KL.
No
2.5%
$205,962 KL.
No
2.6%
$176,981 KL.
No
2.7%
$188,599 KL.
No
≥2.8%
$1,900,362 KL.
Yes
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8%, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official release on April 10 showing a 3.3% year-over-year rise—the sharpest since May 2024 and up from February's 2.4%. This surge stems from a 0.9% monthly jump, driven primarily by energy costs soaring 10.9% month-over-month, with gasoline spiking 21.2% amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, overshadowing softer core CPI at 2.6% YoY. While revisions to preliminary data in future BLS updates pose the only realistic challenge to this near-certainty, the skin-in-the-game pricing underscores unassailable resolution positioning ahead of the May 12 April CPI report and FOMC rate path reassessment.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Thị trường mở: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,344,780Ngày kết thúc
Apr 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8%, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official release on April 10 showing a 3.3% year-over-year rise—the sharpest since May 2024 and up from February's 2.4%. This surge stems from a 0.9% monthly jump, driven primarily by energy costs soaring 10.9% month-over-month, with gasoline spiking 21.2% amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, overshadowing softer core CPI at 2.6% YoY. While revisions to preliminary data in future BLS updates pose the only realistic challenge to this near-certainty, the skin-in-the-game pricing underscores unassailable resolution positioning ahead of the May 12 April CPI report and FOMC rate path reassessment.
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending March 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Khối lượng
$3,344,780Ngày kết thúc
Apr 10, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: No
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for March 2026 US annual CPI inflation at ≥2.8%, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official release on April 10 showing a 3.3% year-over-year rise—the sharpest since May 2024 and up from February's 2.4%. This surge stems from a 0.9% monthly jump, driven primarily by energy costs soaring 10.9% month-over-month, with gasoline spiking 21.2% amid geopolitical tensions including the Iran conflict, overshadowing softer core CPI at 2.6% YoY. While revisions to preliminary data in future BLS updates pose the only realistic challenge to this near-certainty, the skin-in-the-game pricing underscores unassailable resolution positioning ahead of the May 12 April CPI report and FOMC rate path reassessment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp