Moonshot AI's recent open-sourcing of Kimi K2.6 on April 20—featuring a 1T-parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture, 58.6% SWE-Bench Pro score, and 300-agent swarm capabilities—has reinforced its aggressive release cadence following K2.5 in January, yet Kimi K3 remains unreleased despite $500 million Series C funding in early 2026 explicitly for its development and March rollout rumors that fizzled. Polymarket traders price a 49% implied probability for release by June 30, balancing Moonshot's compute expansions and hybrid MLA-KDA architecture hype against typical frontier large language model delays in China's cutthroat open-weight race with DeepSeek and Qwen. Key catalysts include potential benchmark leaks or developer conference demos before April 30 deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$30,083 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
April 30
3%
June 30
64%
$30,083 KL.
April 30
$28,347 KL.
3%
June 30
$1,736 KL.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's recent open-sourcing of Kimi K2.6 on April 20—featuring a 1T-parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture, 58.6% SWE-Bench Pro score, and 300-agent swarm capabilities—has reinforced its aggressive release cadence following K2.5 in January, yet Kimi K3 remains unreleased despite $500 million Series C funding in early 2026 explicitly for its development and March rollout rumors that fizzled. Polymarket traders price a 49% implied probability for release by June 30, balancing Moonshot's compute expansions and hybrid MLA-KDA architecture hype against typical frontier large language model delays in China's cutthroat open-weight race with DeepSeek and Qwen. Key catalysts include potential benchmark leaks or developer conference demos before April 30 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$30,083Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's recent open-sourcing of Kimi K2.6 on April 20—featuring a 1T-parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture, 58.6% SWE-Bench Pro score, and 300-agent swarm capabilities—has reinforced its aggressive release cadence following K2.5 in January, yet Kimi K3 remains unreleased despite $500 million Series C funding in early 2026 explicitly for its development and March rollout rumors that fizzled. Polymarket traders price a 49% implied probability for release by June 30, balancing Moonshot's compute expansions and hybrid MLA-KDA architecture hype against typical frontier large language model delays in China's cutthroat open-weight race with DeepSeek and Qwen. Key catalysts include potential benchmark leaks or developer conference demos before April 30 deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K3 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K3 (e.g., Kimi K3.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K2.5, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K2.5. The release of any model within the Kimi K3 family will qualify as “Kimi K3”.
Products labeled as Kimi K2.6 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$30,083Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 2, 2026, 6:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's recent open-sourcing of Kimi K2.6 on April 20—featuring a 1T-parameter Mixture-of-Experts architecture, 58.6% SWE-Bench Pro score, and 300-agent swarm capabilities—has reinforced its aggressive release cadence following K2.5 in January, yet Kimi K3 remains unreleased despite $500 million Series C funding in early 2026 explicitly for its development and March rollout rumors that fizzled. Polymarket traders price a 49% implied probability for release by June 30, balancing Moonshot's compute expansions and hybrid MLA-KDA architecture hype against typical frontier large language model delays in China's cutthroat open-weight race with DeepSeek and Qwen. Key catalysts include potential benchmark leaks or developer conference demos before April 30 deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp