The onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA’s June 11 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7 to +0.9°C and expected intensification through late 2026, supplies the main near-term boost to global temperatures amid already elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and ocean heat content. February 2026 registered 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and 2025 closed near 1.19°C, establishing a trajectory that places June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C bracket. Model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño persistence but limited additional short-term forcing for early-summer months, keeping probabilities for higher bins below 15% while underscoring the role of ENSO timing and ocean-atmosphere coupling in refining monthly outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
<1.10ºC 3.2%
$13,876 KL.
$13,876 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 22%
1.20–1.24ºC 10%
<1.10ºC 3.2%
$13,876 KL.
$13,876 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 KL.
3%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 KL.
22%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 KL.
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,574 KL.
10%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 KL.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA’s June 11 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7 to +0.9°C and expected intensification through late 2026, supplies the main near-term boost to global temperatures amid already elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and ocean heat content. February 2026 registered 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and 2025 closed near 1.19°C, establishing a trajectory that places June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C bracket. Model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño persistence but limited additional short-term forcing for early-summer months, keeping probabilities for higher bins below 15% while underscoring the role of ENSO timing and ocean-atmosphere coupling in refining monthly outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,876Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA’s June 11 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7 to +0.9°C and expected intensification through late 2026, supplies the main near-term boost to global temperatures amid already elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and ocean heat content. February 2026 registered 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and 2025 closed near 1.19°C, establishing a trajectory that places June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C bracket. Model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño persistence but limited additional short-term forcing for early-summer months, keeping probabilities for higher bins below 15% while underscoring the role of ENSO timing and ocean-atmosphere coupling in refining monthly outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$13,876Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The onset of El Niño conditions, confirmed by NOAA’s June 11 advisory with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7 to +0.9°C and expected intensification through late 2026, supplies the main near-term boost to global temperatures amid already elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and ocean heat content. February 2026 registered 1.18°C above the 20th-century average, and 2025 closed near 1.19°C, establishing a trajectory that places June 2026 anomalies most likely in the 1.15–1.19°C bracket. Model ensembles show high confidence in El Niño persistence but limited additional short-term forcing for early-summer months, keeping probabilities for higher bins below 15% while underscoring the role of ENSO timing and ocean-atmosphere coupling in refining monthly outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp