Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 21%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.0%
$13,904 KL.
$13,904 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
21%
1.15–1.19ºC
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 67%
1.10–1.14ºC 21%
1.20–1.24ºC 11%
1.25–1.29ºC 3.0%
$13,904 KL.
$13,904 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 KL.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,965 KL.
21%
1.15–1.19ºC
$466 KL.
67%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,601 KL.
11%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 KL.
3%
>1.29ºC
$1,612 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Thị trường mở: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$13,904Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Khối lượng
$13,904Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent El Niño conditions, now officially present with expectations of further strengthening through late 2026, represent the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied odds for a June 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline. This developing warm phase of ENSO, confirmed in NOAA’s June 11 diagnostic discussion, adds positive forcing to sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific and aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend that has kept recent months near record levels. May 2026 ranked as the second-warmest May on record, providing a warm baseline, while WMO seasonal outlooks project continued elevated temperatures. Model consensus and historical El Niño analogs support the market’s concentration around the central bin, though June-specific forecast updates from NOAA and ECMWF in coming weeks could refine probabilities if atmospheric responses diverge.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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