Recent softer August core PCE at 0.2% month-over-month, below consensus, alongside September CPI cooling to 3.2% headline and 2.2% core, has anchored trader expectations for September core PCE around 0.2–0.3%. These prints reflect moderating shelter and services pressures offset by resilient spending and energy volatility, keeping the Fed’s preferred gauge above its 2% target. With probabilities split closely between 0.2% and 0.3%, markets price in uncertainty over whether the recent moderation persists or reaccelerates amid elevated aggregate demand. The late-October release will inform the October 28–29 FOMC meeting, where policy remains data-dependent amid ongoing inflation risks.