Geopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February have driven Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, triggering sharp global inventory draws averaging 8.5 million barrels daily in Q2 2026 per EIA estimates. WTI crude prices have settled in the mid-to-high $80s as of late May amid these constraints, though recent weekly EIA data and softening demand growth forecasts from OPEC have introduced downside pressure. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on whether flows resume gradually in June, which could ease the backwardation in futures curves and cap settlement levels, versus sustained tightness that would support higher readings through the final trading day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCrude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
$127,195 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
$90
48%
$85
55%
$80
70%
$75
83%
$70
89%
$65
92%
$63
95%
$60
94%
$56
96%
$55
95%
$52
98%
$50
97%
$127,195 KL.
$90
$25,907 KL.
48%
$85
$5,793 KL.
55%
$80
$5,937 KL.
70%
$75
$16,756 KL.
83%
$70
$19,604 KL.
89%
$65
$872 KL.
92%
$63
$8,961 KL.
95%
$60
$21,068 KL.
94%
$56
$4,950 KL.
96%
$55
$2,914 KL.
95%
$52
$6,332 KL.
98%
$50
$8,100 KL.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February have driven Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, triggering sharp global inventory draws averaging 8.5 million barrels daily in Q2 2026 per EIA estimates. WTI crude prices have settled in the mid-to-high $80s as of late May amid these constraints, though recent weekly EIA data and softening demand growth forecasts from OPEC have introduced downside pressure. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on whether flows resume gradually in June, which could ease the backwardation in futures curves and cap settlement levels, versus sustained tightness that would support higher readings through the final trading day.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Thị trường mở: Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$127,195Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February have driven Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, triggering sharp global inventory draws averaging 8.5 million barrels daily in Q2 2026 per EIA estimates. WTI crude prices have settled in the mid-to-high $80s as of late May amid these constraints, though recent weekly EIA data and softening demand growth forecasts from OPEC have introduced downside pressure. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on whether flows resume gradually in June, which could ease the backwardation in futures curves and cap settlement levels, versus sustained tightness that would support higher readings through the final trading day.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Khối lượng
$127,195Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETGeopolitical supply disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since late February have driven Middle East production shut-ins exceeding 10 million barrels per day, triggering sharp global inventory draws averaging 8.5 million barrels daily in Q2 2026 per EIA estimates. WTI crude prices have settled in the mid-to-high $80s as of late May amid these constraints, though recent weekly EIA data and softening demand growth forecasts from OPEC have introduced downside pressure. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on whether flows resume gradually in June, which could ease the backwardation in futures curves and cap settlement levels, versus sustained tightness that would support higher readings through the final trading day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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